94501 Real Estate -- Alameda Real Estate Blog

NAR Says Families Will Suffer if Foreclosure Freeze Continues

2010-10-18T10:45:00.000-07:00

Thousands of first-time and move-up buyers who hoped to make a foreclosed property their new home now face uncertainty, anxiety and possibly remorse as they worry that closing on their desired property could be in jeopardy.

For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today. The moratoriums are needed, banks say, to review all of the foreclosures in their portfolios to make sure they’re in compliance with the law and that titles are clear.

NAR warned that a prolonged review process would have a damaging impact on many communities and hinder the nation’s economic recovery.

“As the leading advocate for homeownership issues, we understand that many lenders need a time-out to review their actions to ensure that homeowners are not improperly foreclosed on and that the lenders are following regulations and state laws. After that, the foreclosure process must resume quickly to return stability to families, the housing market and the economy,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates, Tucson, Ariz.

Over the past few months NAR has met with officials of top banks to discuss market issues. NAR urged banking leaders to seek resolution quickly through loan modifications and the short-sale process rather than through foreclosure. “We stand ready to help lenders develop better short-sale procedures,” Golder said.

“There are valid foreclosures that should move ahead quickly, and we shouldn’t lump them in with mortgages that are suspect. That would cause deep problems in an already fragile market and throw many families into uncertainty,” Golder said.

Golder said that she is receiving reports from Realtors® that the moratorium is already creating some anxiety among purchasers as transactions are being delayed and that some foreclosure listings are being removed from the market.
Compounding the problem is that the requirements for foreclosure vary by state, and practices to meet these requirements vary by firm. NAR is working with regulators, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency; and encouraging them to identify and quickly address process problems.

In a letter today to the U.S Treasury Department, the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, NAR stated the hope that banks would complete their foreclosure review expeditiously to assure that the rights of borrowers are protected and remove doubt that buyers will receive clear title to their purchase.

“NAR has long urged the lending industry to take every feasible action to keep families in their homes with a loan modification and, if that is not possible, to give them a ‘graceful exit’ through a short sale. These options are far better than a foreclosure, and nothing has driven this point home more clearly than the questions being raised about foreclosures. Lenders should place additional resources into processing loan modifications and short sales,” NAR wrote.

A year ago, NAR instituted a special short sale training program for its Realtor® members to work more closely with banks in expediting mortgages at risk by resolving them through short sales and loan modifications.

September Home Sales in Alameda Start Slow

2010-09-14T10:23:00.000-07:00

Alameda September home sales are tracking for a big decline in both month-over-month and year-over year sales. With just 11 sales recorded so far this month the Island is pacing at 23 sales for the month, this would be a huge decline over the 55 sale in September 2009.

At the current pace, Alameda is looking at a decline of 48-percent in two of its three most productive sales months. The months of August, September and October was Alameda's best sales period in 2009. During that three month span 186 properties were sold. Given that August 2010 had 20 fewer sales than '09 and September is pacing to have the same reduction the final totals for 2010 could be very dismal.

There are some positives in the recent sales both median and average sale price are up over September 2009 and five of the 11 homes that sold went for above the list price. September 2009 median sales prices was $517,000 and the average was $558,335 compared to $589,301 and $571,500 respectively.

September Sales to date:

Sale Date	Address	City	Zip	Type	Beds	Baths	SQ Feet	List Price	Sale Price	%
01-Sep-10	2610 OTIS DR	Alameda	94501	SFR	3	1	2023	$325,000	$350,000	107.69%
02-Sep-10	1944 OTIS DR	Alameda	94501	SFR	4	2	2029	$649,000	$657,500	101.31%
02-Sep-10	118 PURCELL DR	Alameda	94502	SFR	2	2	1526	$659,000	$655,000	99.39%
03-Sep-10	1325 SAINT CHARLES	Alameda	94501	SFR	3	2	1842	$724,000	$704,000	97.24%
03-Sep-10	2625 JANIS CIRCLE	Alameda	94501	MFR	0	0		$698,000	$660,000	94.56%
07-Sep-10	202 CHINABERRY LN	Alameda	94502	TNHS	4	2	2018	$516,900	$515,000	99.63%
08-Sep-10	447 SANTA CLARA	Alameda	94501	MFR	0	0		$419,000	$435,000	103.82%
09-Sep-10	630 TARRYTON ISLE	Alameda	94501	SFR	4	2	1841	$699,000	$710,000	101.57%
09-Sep-10	2931 WINDSOR DRIVE	Alameda	94501	SFR	2	1	1198	$576,000	$585,000	101.56%
10-Sep-10	2722 BAYVIEW DRIVE	Alameda	94501	SFR	3	2	1716	$629,500	$615,000	97.70%
10-Sep-10	1033 TAYLOR AVE	Alameda	94501	MFR	0	0		$499,000	$400,000	80.16%

Alameda Home Inventory Grows 7-Percent

2010-09-13T07:30:00.000-07:00

In just seven days, Alameda Home Inventory grew 7-percent and is closing in on 200 units for the first time since I started tracking the data in 2008. The total number of units is just 13 new properties for sale, but the trend is showing that sales on the Island are not matching the rate of sale.

The more concerning number is the growth of foreclosures. Alameda saw four more foreclosed homes come to the market: 73 Sand Harbor, 1005 Verdemar Dr, 1139 Pacific Ave and 2133 Clinton Ave. There was a net gain of three foreclosed units week-over-week.

The foreclosure pipeline looks to be very full and the trend appears to be rising. According to RealtyTrac, Alameda has 282 homes in the foreclosure process; 215 in the 94501 and 67 in the 94502. Of those the bulk, 144 units, are still in the pre-foreclosure process, 99 are at the auction stage and 39 are banked owned.

If the RealtyTrac numbers are accurate, then the banks are still sitting on inventory. If you add in the additional distressed properties then the Alameda Inventory is roughly 316 units, nearly 10-percent of all the Alameda's housing stock.

The positive is Alameda is in better shape than most of the country. The Island had just one in every 423 housing units received a foreclosure filing in July 2010. That is on the low end of the spectrum. Some parts of the country and the Bay Area are seeing nearly, twice as many filings, 1-244 is the higher ends. The Nation's number one foreclosure market Las Vegas, NV had one filing for every 71 households and the state of Nevada one filing for every 82 households.

The housing market looks like it is going to be very bumpy over the next several months and the distressed properties is good indicator to monitor as we head towards 2011.

Inventory

Date: September 13, 2010	9/13/10	9/6/10	Weekly Change
Total Inventory	198	185	13
94501	148	140	8
94502	50	45	5
Single Family	109	99	10
Condos	60	55	5
Multi-Family	27	29	(2)
Foreclosure	20	17	3
Short Sale	21	22	(1)
Price Reduced	79	72	7
% of Price Reduced	39.90%	38.92%	0.98%
High List	$1,835,000	$1,835,000
Low List	$149,888	$149,888

Check out the new Bulletin Board feature: If you have a local Alameda announcement or something to sell in Alameda. Posting is at the sole discretion of the editor of 94501 Real Estate. Posting will be done nightly, so it may take up to 24 hours to appear on the bulletin board. Please include links if you have a page to direct people to. Email announcements and ads to 94501RealEstate@Gmail.com.

New Open House Section on 94501 Real Estate

2010-09-10T09:26:00.000-07:00

Now that Blogger allows you to create multiple pages, 94501 Real Estate has launched an Open Home section. Realtors to have an Open Home posted: Just email your posting to 94501RealEstate@gmail.com before 5 PM on Thursday.

Please include the date(s) and time of the open house along with the list price, address, beds, baths and square footage.If you have a link to the property please include the URL.

The only rules I have is that it must be an Alameda listing.

An additional feature: Bulletin Board

Bulletin Board

If you have a local Alameda announcement or something to sell in Alameda. Posting is at the sole discretion of the editor of 94501 Real Estate. Posting will be done nightly, so it may take up to 24 hours to appear on the bulletin board. Please include links if you have a page to direct people to. Email announcements and ads to 94501RealEstate@Gmail.com.

Looking for a Bargain? See Alameda's Top 15

2010-09-09T06:30:00.000-07:00

In this current economic time everyone is looking for a bargain, so I thought I would give you Alameda's top 15 based on the percentage of price reduction.

Looking at the list these homes have had anywhere between one and five reductions. The list contains both condos and single family homes, the interesting part is of the 37 distressed properties on the market only four are on the Top 15 list.

The home with the largest reduction is 1213 Saint Charles that saw the price $289,000 for almost a 21% reduction. This is a great looking home in the Gold Coast, but the seven figure price tag leaves it a tough buy for most.

My favorite is listed for $599,000, a 17% discount is 2837 Madison. It has four bedrooms and two and half baths, bay windows and wainscotting. A very nice home and a more moderate price.

If you are looking for a great starter place the condo at 1170 9th Street at $199,000 may be a good place to look for a deal. It is only one of two units offered at under $200,000. It is a one bedroom place, but if you like water it has a pool and is on the lagoon.

If you are looking for a single family residence there are a few to select from under $500,000. there are 20 single family residence with at least two bedrooms between $299,950 and $499,999. If you need more than two bedrooms the selection gets slim two three bedroom, two four bedroom and one five bedroom homes in this range.

Top 15 Bargains

List Date	Original List	New List Price	%	Number of Reductions	Address
21-Apr-10	$1,389,000	$1,100,000	79.19%	2	1213 SAINT CHARLES ST
12-Jul-10	$725,000	$599,000	82.62%	2	2837 MADISON ST
04-May-10	$300,000	$249,000	83.00%	2	965 SHOREPOINT CT #203
14-Jun-10	$599,900	$499,900	83.33%	2	2149 LINCOLN AVE
20-Jan-10	$239,000	$199,900	83.64%	5	1170 9TH ST #13
22-Jan-10	$285,000	$240,000	84.21%	3	2209 OTIS DR #R
19-Nov-09	$1,385,000	$1,195,000	86.28%	2	1000 GRAND ST
21-Jun-10	$1,390,000	$1,200,000	86.33%	2	1831 SAN JOSE AVENUE
07-Jul-10	$478,900	$418,900	87.47%	2	3201 OTIS DR
11-Jun-10	$965,000	$849,000	87.98%	2	1525 GIBBONS DRIVE
18-May-10	$859,000	$760,000	88.47%	5	64 STEUBEN BAY
07-Jul-10	$789,000	$699,000	88.59%	2	3125 BAYO VISTA AVE
16-Jul-10	$544,000	$484,000	88.97%	1	108 PARFAIT LN
30-Jul-10	$650,000	$579,000	89.08%	1	1529 MOZART STREET
08-Mar-10	$379,950	$339,950	89.47%	3	2101 SHORELINE DR #262

August Home Sales Take Big Chill

2010-09-08T06:15:00.000-07:00

After a big run up in sales prior to the end of the Federal Tax Credit, home sales in Alameda dipped in the month of August significantly. The decline in sales is reflective of what is happening across the country where sales haven fallen off as credit has been become more difficult and buyers are wary to buy a home. Alameda sales are down 41-percent in May and 34-percent from June.

Looking back the past two years August had 56 sales in 2009 and 48 in 2008 compared to 35 this year. This is a 27-percent decline year-over-year. The combination of growing inventory and slow sales will continue to put pressure on the Alameda market.

Both the median ($578,000) and average sale ($623,951) price were up in August. The median is the highest since June of last year and the average you have to go back to November 2008.

The positive for sales were May and June, the sales number were very good compared to the last two year. Both months exceed the prior two years sales for the same time period. Most of this was due to buyers taking advantage of the tax credit.

Alameda Home Sales Graph from January 2009 to August 2010:

Sale Date	Address	zip	Sale Price
03-Aug-10	234 SHEFFIELD RD	94502	$855,000
03-Aug-10	1801 VERSAILLES AVENUE	94501	$850,000
04-Aug-10	2101 SHORELINE DR #461	94501	$365,000
06-Aug-10	983 PARK ST	94501	$409,500
10-Aug-10	119 CENTRAL AVENUE	94501	$465,000
10-Aug-10	1200 SAN ANTONIO AVE	94501	$1,635,000
11-Aug-10	608 FORTRESS ISLE	94501	$790,000
11-Aug-10	1825 NASON ST	94501	$390,000
12-Aug-10	2615 WASHINGTON ST	94501	$525,000
12-Aug-10	3402 REDHOOK LN	94502	$425,000
12-Aug-10	1712 THIRD STREET #305	94501	$265,000
12-Aug-10	2935 SOUTHWOOD DR	94501	$1,200,000
13-Aug-10	1516 FIFTH STREET	94501	$678,000
13-Aug-10	2015 LINCOLN AVE	94501	$530,000
13-Aug-10	1713 EAGLE AVE	94501	$500,000
13-Aug-10	1001 SHORELINE DR #108	94501	$419,300
17-Aug-10	410 MARSHALL WAY	94501	$470,000
17-Aug-10	1001 SHORELINE DR #406	94501	$412,000
18-Aug-10	965 SHOREPOINT CT #222	94501	$298,000
20-Aug-10	356 ANDERSON RD	94502	$960,000
20-Aug-10	2778 SHANER DR	94502	$607,500
20-Aug-10	534 QUEENS ROAD	94501	$578,000
20-Aug-10	950 SHOREPOINT CT #216	94501	$185,000
23-Aug-10	2845 ENCINAL AVE	94501	$638,000
23-Aug-10	837 PACIFIC AVE	94501	$455,000
27-Aug-10	1 STONE HBR	94502	$780,000
27-Aug-10	1305 HANSEN AVE	94501	$776,000
27-Aug-10	2157 SAN ANTONIO AVE	94501	$745,000
27-Aug-10	1555 SANTA CLARA AVE	94501	$565,000
30-Aug-10	1809 KOFMAN PARKWAY	94502	$838,000
30-Aug-10	1312 SAN ANTONIO AVE	94501	$650,000
31-Aug-10	236 RATTO RD.	94502	$879,000
31-Aug-10	632 ARLINGTON ISLE	94501	$705,000
31-Aug-10	22 BRITT COURT	94502	$620,000
31-Aug-10	3523 OLEANDER AVE	94502	$375,000
	Median		$578,000
	Average		$623,951

For More Detail
August 2010 Sales

Alameda Inventory: 31-Percent Growth Over Last Year

2010-09-07T06:30:00.000-07:00

Alameda home inventory has been steadily growing since the beginning of the year, when the Island was well below a 100 units of housing for sale. Over the past eight months inventory seem to be stuck in the 130 range, but began to grow again and with the end of the Federal tax credit, and the traditional selling season.

Since both of those milestones have passed it is good to reflect back and see how the market has changed.

Enter the Fall of 2009, there was a downward trend in inventory after peaking in July and bottoming at 131 units during the first week of September. The lack of inventory continued well into 2010 and lag for most of the year.

Inventory is now at 185 units, this is a growth of of 31-percent from September 2009. The largest growth came in the condominium market that more than doubled. The condo market has struggled over the past two years as evident with 11 condos listed at $250,000 or below. Three of those units are in the Park Webster complex at the foot of Webster Street. The Woodstock Coop (townhouse) also has two listed under the $250,000.

The distressed market has also grown over the past year. The most concerning is the growth of Short Sales. Short Sales is the seller's attempt to sell the home for less than they owe on the property. The number of short sales double from the prior year. The properties range from $149,888 to $720,000.

Date: Septemer 6, 2010	Sep-10	Sep-09	Change
Total Inventory	185	131	54
94501	140	104	36
94502	45	27	18
Single Family	99	86	13
Condos	55	26	29
Multi-Family	29	17	12
Foreclosure	17	12	5
Short Sale	21	10	11
Price Reduced	72	47	25
% of Price Reduced	38.92%	35.88%	3.04%
High List	$1,835,000	$1,899,000
Low List	$149,888	$204,900

Note: The inventory includes to parcels of land for sale.

Alameda Real Estate: Odds, Ends and Inventory

2010-02-16T14:07:00.000-08:00

Just a quick post today. The Alameda home inventory is down from the prior two weeks, and if you look at the chart below you can see the steep decline since July. If this was a ski slope it would be a lots of fun, but this line just makes the market sluggish.

The market add three new foreclosures this past week and you can see that distressed properties make up almost 30 percent of the Island's inventory. Distressed properties have made up 25 percent of the market since November. I think that this trend is going to continue most of this year.

The inventory for week shows that single family residence are still below 60 units. Of the 56 units for sale 16 of those properties are either a short sale or foreclosure; this is 29 percent of the inventory. If you are looking on Bay Farm the inventory 25 units, so buyers do not have much selection.

I would expect a bit of a sales run as the Federal Tax Credit comes to a close in April (buyers need to be in contract by April 30, 2010) on lower end properties that would fit the income limits for buyers. Until the market gains new inventory prices will be low and sales will be slow.

Alameda Inventory: February 12, 2010


.
.	2/15/2010
.	Total	109
.	94501	84
.	94502	25
.	SFR	56
.	Condo	32
.	Multi-Family	19
.	Short Sale	18
.	Foreclosure	14
.	Price Reductions	32
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$199,900
.

Increase in Single Family Homes For Sale

2010-02-08T15:00:00.000-08:00

This week the Alameda Real Estate Inventory showed a niced increase with an additional nine units for sale. The increase in Single Family Residences was the most positive part of the increase in inventory.

The SFR market was below 60 units for the past seven weeks, so any bump even a small one is encouraging. Since most of the Island's housing stock is SFRs then an increase in this category is good for the current market, which has been suffering from a lack of inventory. There are 11 news single family listing since last Monday.

New Listings


.	List Date	List Price	Adress	Beds	Baths	Sq Feet	Type
.	2/5/2010	$648,000	336 LINA AVENUE	4	3.5	3150	SFR
.	2/5/2010	$549,000	2015 BUENA VISTA AVENUE	2	1	1318	SFR
.	2/5/2010	$619,900	404 KITTY HAWK RD	3	2	1438	SFR
.	2/5/2010	$430,000	3116 LA CRESTA	3	2.5	1628	TNHS
.	2/4/2010	$450,000	2017 LINCOLN AVENUE	3	2.5	1443	SFR
.	2/4/2010	$639,000	404 CAMDEN RD	3	2	1503	SFR
.	2/4/2010	$698,000	227 INVERNESS CT	3	2.5	1891	SFR
.	2/3/2010	$565,000	7 KINGSBURY COURT	2	3.5	1503	CONDO
.	2/3/2010	$470,000	3037 LINDA VI	3	2.5	1628	TNHS
.	2/2/2010	$354,900	1819 UNION ST	2	1	997	SFR
.	2/1/2010	$250,000	1825 SHORELINE DR #112	1	1	621	CONDO
.	2/1/2010	$517,000	1618 6TH ST	2	2	1422	SFR
.	2/1/2010	$310,000	447 LINCOLN AVE	2	1	722	SFR
.	2/1/2010	$1,300,000	2809 SEA VIEW PKWY	5	3	2744	SFR
.	2/1/2010	$779,000	105 SHEFFIELD RD	4	2	1954	SFR

Overall, Inventory still remains low, but relative to the the current sales levels it may be an appropriate level of housing stock until more buyers come to the market. This is the proverbial chicken and egg; in this case buyer and seller. More people will sell when they have people to buy and buyers will buy when there is something that fits their needs to buy.

A shift needs to happen to shake the market loose, but until then I will just continue to monitor the numbers.

Alameda Inventory February 8, 2010


.
.	2/8/2010
.	Total	113
.	94501	89
.	94502	24
.	SFR	61
.	Condo	31
.	Multi-Family	19
.	Short Sale	18
.	Foreclosure	11
.	Price Reductions	29
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$188,000
.

Alameda Snapshot: Empty Again

2010-02-05T06:12:00.000-08:00

It appears that the New Zealander has closed leaving the historic Croll's building empty again. Here is an Alameda Snapshot of the beautiful stain glass incorporated in the building.

January A Fizzle For Home Sales

2010-02-04T10:29:00.000-08:00

After a strong close to Alameda home sales in the final four months of a lackluster 2009 in, 2010 started with a completed fizzle. The first month of this year so far has recorded just 16 sales. This is the lowest total I have seen in the three years of data that I have compiled.

For a reference, January 2007 had 37 sales and 2008 and 2009 recorded 21 sales in the opening month of the year. The year-over-year decline is 24 percent and the month-over-month change is a decrease of 59 percent.

Typically January and February are slow months for home sales, but the unusually slow sales have been compounded by a lack of (new or good) inventory for buyers to choose from and the difficulty for many to still secure financing.

Because the sales were low the Alameda median home sale price dropped to $477,800. This is $91,200 drop from December or a 16 percent decline. The positive is that it is higher than January 2009’s $457,000. The high median sales price in 2009 was $594,000 in June.

January 2010 Alameda Home Sales


.	Sales Date	Address	Type	List Price	Sale Price	%
.	1/5/2010	1041 CAMINO DEL VALLE	TNH	$365,000	$378,000	104%
.	1/6/2010	1428 UNION ST	SFR	$825,000	$801,000	97%
.	1/6/2010	1533 MOZART ST	SFR	$350,000	$335,000	96%
.	1/8/2010	1547 B SANTA CLARA AVE	SFR	$575,000	$530,000	92%
.	1/8/2010	2815 OTIS DR	SFR	$459,000	$426,000	93%
.	1/8/2010	2031 OTIS DR #F	CONDO	$279,900	$285,000	102%
.	1/8/2010	16 CALLAN PL	SFR	$1,850,000	$1,795,000	97%
.	1/12/2010	1367 HANSEN AVE	SFR	$679,000	$679,000	100%
.	1/12/2010	1560 LINCOLN UNIT C	SFR	$230,900	$210,000	91%
.	1/13/2010	653 CENTRE COURT	TNH	$479,000	$483,600	101%
.	1/13/2010	1825 SHORELINE DRIVE #213	CONDO	$239,000	$245,000	103%
.	1/15/2010	2140 CLINTON AVE.	MFR	$995,000	$880,000	88%
.	1/15/2010	1554 4TH ST	SFR	$499,000	$530,000	106%
.	1/15/2010	801 PARK STREET	SFR	$509,900	$490,000	96%
.	1/15/2010	430 COLA BALLENA #C	CONDO	$484,000	$472,000	98%
.	1/26/2010	2031 OTIS DR #G	CONDO	$215,000	$210,000	98%
.				Median	$477,800
.				Average	$546,850
.

Alameda Landmark Now A Short Sale

2010-02-01T13:29:00.000-08:00

Sorry about the lack of posts last week, but have been under the weather and did not feel much like writing.

Here is today's home inventory for Alameda and the data shows a nice upswing in inventory this week. In total the Island is up 11 more units than last week, but there is a concerning underlying element in the numbers that is cause for concern.

Five of the 11 units for sale are distressed properties; our of the properties are short sales. If this trend holds it is a sign that people are continuing to struggle with their mortgages and can not hold on at the current rate.

Three of the four short sale listings add this week were townhome/condos. The only exception is The Webster House at 1238 Versailles Avenue. Built in 1854 this is a City landmark and now a victim of the housing downturn. According to the listing comment it is a: Historical gem currently used as a bed & breakfast & tea house (business being sold separately). Fully remodeled w/ commercial kitchen & charming touches throughout. Large grounds, set far back from the street w/ great curb appeal.

Distressed properties are 35 percent of Alameda's inventory. Inventory growth is a good thing given the City has less than three months of it, but at the cost of others losing their property this can have other social impact.

Alameda Inventory -- February 1, 2010


.
.	2/1/2010
.	Total	104
.	94501	82
.	94502	22
.	SFR	54
.	Condo	29
.	Multi-Family	19
.	Short Sale	19
.	Foreclosure	10
.	Price Reductions	28
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$188,000
.

December Existing-Home Sales Down but Prices Rise; 2009 Sales Up

2010-01-25T11:39:00.000-08:00

Some very sobering news from the National Association of Realtors® today, after a rising surge in sales due to the November deadline for the tax credit in September through November, existing-home sales fell as expected in December. First-time buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit and created a nice surge in sales in the prior three months.

In Alameda, we saw real estate sales follow the same pattern as the National trend. The Island’s sales peaked in October with 75 sales. September through November accounted for 168 of Alameda’s 491 sales for last year; 34 percent.

NAR reports prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009. This was also true for Alameda. Alameda reported an 85 percent increase in year-over-year sales for the month and a $4,000 increase in the median home price. Alameda’s median home price for December was $569,000.

Nationally, NAR report existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008. That is a big number a 16.7 percent drop. As reported in other news organizations economists expected an 11.6% decrease in sales during December, which was a big shock to the markets.

For all of 2009 there were 5,156,000 existing-home sales, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008; it was the first annual sales gain since 2005. Alameda saw an increase in sales with an 11 percent increase.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008. Alameda’s median was a marginal increase, but is still significantly higher the national median.

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 6.5-month supply in November. Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008. Alameda’s inventory continues to decline; a year-over-year comparison of December show at the end of 2009 there was a 35 percent decline in the number of homes for sale. Today Inventory, shown below, shows that the decline continues.

Inventory Data -- January 25, 2010


.
.	1/25/2010
.	Total	93
.	94501	77
.	94502	16
.	SFR	51
.	Condo	20
.	Multi-Family	20
.	Short Sale	15
.	Foreclosure	9
.	Price Reductions	29
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$239,900
.

2010: a time of stabilization | Real Estate and Technology News for Agents, Brokers and Investors | Inman News

2010-01-22T10:54:00.001-08:00

2010: a time of stabilization Real Estate and Technology News for Agents, Brokers and Investors Inman News

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“Cramdowns”: Will they work?

2010-01-21T10:17:00.000-08:00

I get a lot of good Real Estate information from First Tuesday. They are a Real Estate education firm, but they have an online newsletter that summarizes some of the big issues in real estate for the wee and in this week’s newsletter they wrote about “Cramdowns” and it was a very interesting take.

A cramdown is the involuntary imposition by a court of a reorganization plan over the objection of some classes of creditors. Basically the court tells the bank these are the new terms of the loan so a borrower can stay in a home.

First Tuesday’s take was basically the since the New York Times reported housing prices in the U.S. flatlined in October, 2009 despite low mortgage rates and a homebuyer’s tax credit, the housing market has a new wave of foreclosures on the horizon and the only way to cure this ill is to force banks to take court institute financial terms.

Section from the First Tuesday article:

A combination of high unemployment and the failure of the current administration’s foreclosure prevention measures will result in an estimated 2.4 million foreclosures this year.
Considering the fresh wave of foreclosures expected, what will happen to prices in the coming months when the Federal Reserve Bank (The Fed) begins to raise interest rates and the government tax credit extension has expired?
Prices are predicted to fall by another 10% nationwide. Another price drop would push more homeowners into underwater situations. The only timely and affective way to deal with an underwater home – negative equity and homeowner insolvency – is to reduce the principal balance on the home loan, or in other words, a cramdown.

It is an interesting take, and I agree that high unemployment, a new wave of foreclosures, and falling prices will continue to add pressure to the market. But forcing lenders with cramdowns will not improve the entire situation. Future buyers could then pay more for loans, because banks will make up the losses by charging more.

A national policy would be difficult, because in high demand areas like the Bay Area and Alameda a 10 percent decline would most likely impact those who purchased in the last five years, but not a majority of homeowners. The lack of inventory in California has become and issue and allowing homes to come on to the market could actually improve the housing market.

Buyers have an opportunity with low interest rates, low prices (compared to three years ago) and goverment assistance, but they lack inventory to select from in the current environment.

Big Change in FHA Loan Requirements

2010-01-20T10:20:00.000-08:00

The The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has made some big changes to their loan policy. First off, just so everyone understands the FHA does not make loans, but rather offers insurance against default so lenders have a fallback position. The cost of the mortgage insurance is passed along to the homeowner and typically is included in the monthly payment.

Unlike conventional loans that adhere to strict underwriting guidelines, FHA-insured loans require very little cash investment to close a loan. There is more flexibility in calculating household income and payment ratios. In most cases, the insurance cost to the homeowner will drop off after five years or when the remaining balance on the loan is 78 percent of the value of the property -whichever is longer.

FHA loans are popular because borrowers are only require a down payments of 3.5 percent of the purchase price, that requirement did not change.

The new policies announced today are designed to bring more revenue into the agency, while at the same time keeping loans available. FHA's popularity has grown and the agency is seeing dramatic financial pressure with the increase of foreclosures (the need to payout on bad loans) and the increase in popularity of the FHA loan. The FHA has seen an increase of popularity in this product they now back nearly 30 percent of loans.

The changes:
Borrowers pay an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 2.25 percent of the total loan amount, up from the current level of 1.75 percent. A home buyer will still be able to wrap these fees into the total amount borrowed. FHA officials also plan to ask Congress to increase the maximum annual premium that FHA can charge.

Need a credit score of at least 580 to qualify. Borrowers with a score lower than 580 will need a down payment of at least 10 percent.

For California and our local Alameda housing market this will make it more difficult for first time buyers that have little for a down payment. If they have a poor credit score they may not be able to buy at all, and for many this is a good thing. People who could not afford houses over the past five years were getting loans they could not afford.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Alameda Inventory For January 18

2010-01-18T12:46:00.000-08:00

Just a quick update on weekly inventory. As you can see after a slight uptick last week, inventory fell back to 95 units this week. The good news is all categories of inventory are shrinking, that includes distressed. If the market can get rid of the distressed properties this is good news for our local Alameda real estate market.

The tough part of the market is the single family residence. There are only 54 SFRs listed
for sale today. The Single family market is Alameda's biggest driver of home sales, so a lack of inventory makes the market a difficult one for those looking to buy, with limited choices.

Inventory is very volatile, but in my opinion it is the best way to get a quick pulse of the market. The pulse, right now, is telling me we have very little activity and sales continue to stagnate. The numbers are broken out below.

Alameda Inventory January 18, 2009


.
.	1/18/2010
.	Total	95
.	94501	79
.	94502	16
.	SFR	54
.	Condo	19
.	Multi-Family	20
.	Short Sale	14
.	Foreclosure	10
.	Price Reductions	30
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$220,000
.

Alameda Snapshot - Early Morning Golfers

2010-01-15T09:31:00.001-08:00

Since the Chuck Corica Golf Course has been a Hot Topic this week, I thought I would re-post this Flickr photo from Jassy-50.

Have a great weekend.

photo - Early Morning Golfers
Originally uploaded by Jassy-50

2009 Was The Year of Foreclosure in Alameda and Nation

2010-01-14T11:31:00.000-08:00

RealtyTrac, released its Year-End 2009 Foreclosure Market Report™, which reported a record 2.8 million U.S properties with foreclosure filings in 2009. The report shows a total of 3,957,643 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 2,824,674 U.S. properties in 2009, a 21 percent increase in total properties from 2008 and a 120 percent increase in total properties from 2007.

The report also shows that 2.21 percent of all U.S. housing units (one in 45) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.84 percent in 2008, 1.03 percent in 2007 and 0.58 percent in 2006.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 349,519 U.S. properties in December, a 14 percent jump from the previous month and a 15 percent increase from December 2008 — when a similar monthly jump in foreclosure activity occurred. Despite the increase in December, foreclosure activity in the fourth quarter decreased 7 percent from the third quarter, although it was still up 18 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008.

In Alameda, RealtyTrac currently reports 94 pre-foreclosures, 86 auction properties, and 82 banked owned properties. In 2009, Alameda had 74 foreclose sales and 36 short sales, these 110 sales accounted for 22 percent of the sales on the Island.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates in 2009 with more than 10 percent of Nevada housing units received at least one foreclosure filing in 2009, giving it the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate for the third consecutive year.

Nevada foreclosure activity in December increased 27 percent from the previous month but was still down 22 percent from December 2008. Fourth quarter foreclosure activity in Nevada was down 37 percent from the previous quarter thanks to substantial decreases in October and November.

Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate in 2009, with more than 6 percent of its housing units receiving at least one foreclosure filing during the year, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest foreclosure rate, with 5.93 percent of its housing units receiving at least one foreclosure filing during the year.
Four states accounted for more than 50 percent of the nation’s 2009 total, with more than 1.4 million properties receiving a foreclosure filing in our own California, Florida, Arizona and Illinois combined.

A total of 632,573 California properties received a foreclosure filing in 2009, the nation’s largest state foreclosure activity total and an increase of nearly 21 percent from 2008. After four straight month-over-month declines, California foreclosure activity in December increased nearly 9 percent from the previous month, but the state’s fourth quarter foreclosure activity was still down 17 percent from the previous quarter.

Although Alameda has not had numbers close to the State averages, we have seen an increase in distressed activity. Given the RealtyTrac numbers for Alameda there appears to be even more distressed sales on the horizon.

A Peak Into 2010 Alameda Home Sale

2010-01-13T12:06:00.000-08:00

Since I spent the last two days looking at Alameda Home sales for 2009, I thought it would be good to see how January is shaping up.

To date the Island has seven sales logged. Last year we had 21 total sales for the month of January, but the first was not record until the ninth day of the month. So Sales have started a little earlier this year, but the pace is behind last year.

The majority of the sales sold below asking price, a trend that is continuing from 2009. The range of ask price to sale price ranged from 92-104 percent. It appears that a few high end homes are still selling with 16 Callen Place receiving $1,795,000.

January is traditionally slow for home sales, but if we can get a strong start to the home selling season that usally jumps into high gear in the Spring, this could be a springboard for a more productive 2010.


.	Sale Date	Address	Type	Beds	Baths	Sq Feet	List Price	Sale Price	%
.	1/6/2010	1428 UNION ST	SFR	3	2	2375	$825,000	$801,000	97%
.	1/12/2010	1367 HANSEN AVE	SFR	3	1	1620	$679,000	$679,000	100%
.	1/8/2010	1547 B SANTA CLARA AVE	SFR	2	2	1325	$575,000	$530,000	92%
.	1/8/2010	2815 OTIS DR	SFR	2	1	1152	$459,000	$426,000	93%
.	1/5/2010	1041 CAMINO DEL VALLE	TNHSE	3	2	1584	$365,000	$378,000	104%
.	1/6/2010	1533 MOZART ST	SFR	2	1	1095	$350,000	$335,000	96%
.	1/8/2010	16 CALLAN PL	SFR	4	4	4251	$1,850,000	$1,795,000	97%

Alameda Tranfer Tax Revenue Update – Final for 2009

2010-01-12T09:42:00.000-08:00

With the end of the quarter and the end of the year, I want to give a final update to Alameda's Transfer Tax for 2009.

I wrote about the Transfer Tax back in March and in one of my first posts was about Measure P, so I just thought I should continue to update how much money the "Tax" is generating throughout the year. First the disclosure: all of the numbers reflect residential housing sales recorded on the MLS. Commercial building and private sales are not included so the numbers are higher than reported. The intent is to get a reflection of what is happening.

Sales were up this past year, but the total dollars spent on homes was down, (See yesterday’s post) and if the council had not changed the transfer tax they would have seen more than a $50,000 decline in the transfer tax.

From January 1 to December 31, 2009, there were 492 sales that represent over $278,995,615 million dollars in transactions. Under the newly enacted $12 per $1,000 the transfer tax generated $3,347,947 in revenue. If the Council had not made the change ($5.40 per $1,000) the revenue would have been $1,506,576; a difference of $1,841,371.

The final quarter of the year made a huge difference in the amount of money generated for the city coffers. Over a million dollars was generated by the tax in the final three months. October alone generated over $500,000.

Given all the factors putting pressure on the housing market foreclosure, a soft job market, tight lending and scared buyers/sellers the impact is has been harsh in the number of sales and the revenue generated.In the last blog post I said that in the short-term the tax may be one more factor for people not to buy, but given the stress on the City’s General Fund the tax may have been a necessary step. I think that this continues to be true.

I followed this topic for a year, instead of a quarterly update I will be changing to a semi-annual.

Wrap On 2009 Alameda Home Sales

2010-01-11T14:14:00.000-08:00

So it is time to wrap up 2009 Alameda Homes sales with December’s numbers and the totals for the year. My disclaimer: The data is what is reported on the Multiple Listing Service and is not a complete picture of all sales, but it does give a good image of what (or did not) happened in terms of sales.

First the December 2009 sales numbers were good, with 39 transactions recorded. This is one more sales than November, and an 85 percent year-over-year increase. The median sale price for the last month of the year was $569,000 and the average was $610,741.

December recorded two million dollar sales. Twenty eight of the sales were single family residences, nine condo/townhome and two multi-family.

The last half of the year really picked up in terms of sales volume and made 2009 much better than 2008.

The total number of sales for 2009 was 492 units for a total dollar value of $278,995,615. Compared to 2008 when the Island had 463 sales for $288,519,712. So we had more sales, but less dollar volume.

The median sale price in 2009 was $555,000 and the average was $567,064. Alameda had 298 property sales under $600,000.

Single family residences accounted for 332 sales in 2009 with 14 properties selling for more than a million dollars. A home on Bay Street was the top sale at $1,917,828; the low sale was $135,000.

As the year moves forward it appears that Alameda market did make a turn towards recovery, but the only thing I can say is 2009 was better than 2008 and my hope is 2010 will be even better.

Weekly Inventory


.
.	1/11/2010
.	Total	102
.	94501	83
.	94502	19
.	SFR	59
.	Condo	21
.	Multi-Family	20
.	Short Sale	19
.	Foreclosure	11
.	Price Reductions	32
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$215,000
.

Alameda Housing Stock Falls Below 100 Units

2010-01-05T13:35:00.000-08:00

I am on vacation this week, but I did want to make a quick post with the weekly Alameda MLS homes for sale inventory data. It was significant that the inventory fell below 100 units to start 2010.

The graph that goes back to November 2008 shows a steady increase from February 2009 to July of last year. From July it has been a steady decline reaching an all time low since I started tracking the data.

The Island has just 56 single family homes for sale and just 27 under $600,000. Of those 27 on 15 have three or more bedrooms listed. That is a very limited selection for home hunters.

Short sales and foreclosures continue to make up a good portion of the Alameda inventory for sale; distressed properties are 38 percent of the inventory.

If you compare the first week of 2009 to 2010 the Island had 149 units for sale compared to the new low of 97. This is a 34 percent decline year-over-year.

I will try and get one more post in this week, but next Monday I will have December 2009 sales and Thursday the results of 2009.

Alameda Home Inventory January 4, 2010


.
.	1/4/2010
.	Total	97
.	94501	80
.	94502	17
.	SFR	56
.	Condo	19
.	Multi-Family	20
.	Short Sale	18
.	Foreclosure	12
.	Price Reductions	33
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$215,000
.

The Top Alameda Real Estate Stories of 2009

2009-12-31T06:00:00.000-08:00

As the year 2009 comes to a close, this year will be remembered for the stamp the National Housing market placed on the economy. The year was dominated by crumbling credit system and foreclosures and home buyers and sellers caught guessing on what the market would do. Distressed properties were the driving force behind the roller coaster year for U.S. housing market. In Alameda, our local market was touched by banks controlling many home listings and fewer homes coming on the market, and of course government intervention. So here is my top Nine in ’09:

Nine in 2009
Number 9 – In January, SunCal releases Draft Redevelopment Master Plan with a plan to build 4,500 new housing units. This addition to the Alameda housing stock would create a 14% increase housing stock. The plan is to build housing in five phases and include high density blocks (non-Measure A compliant), medium density blocks (non-Measure A compliant), low density attached blocks and single family residents blocks. Over this year the plan has met resistance in the form of Measure B support.

Number 8 – Government Intervention happens to try and stimulate home buying. Congress enacted a first-time homebuyer tax credit which increased buyer activity in the entry-level housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors ® November survey of members reported that the number of first-time home buyers climbed to 51 percent. This credit has very little impact for Alameda buyers because of income limits.

Number 7 – High End Freeze – Sales in the luxury home market almost disappear in Alameda. Homes priced over $1 million had a difficult time selling, the first recorded sale of a seven figure home for 2009 was February 26. Of the 480 sales recorded so far this year only 14 homes were a million dollars or more. Compare that to the 38 properties that sold for under $300,000. The highest home sale in Alameda was 1115 Bay Street, which sold October 9 for $1,987,000.

Number 6 -- Prices Flattening – Much of the turmoil in the housing market appeared to take a breath in the later part of 2009. Median home prices in California saw some of the largest increases in the Nation – ZipRealty tracks median home prices from MLS sales in 27 markets and from January to November, San Diego’s median rose 55 percent, San Francisco Bay Area rose 31 percent, Los Angeles rose 25 percent, and Orange County rose 19 percent. In January, the Alameda median home price was $457,000 by November the median increased to $520,000.

Number 5 -- Mobile Shopping – 2009 was the year of the app. Prospective homebuyers and sellers can now track real estate on the go. The iPhone and other smart phone have real estate companies developing apps for home buyers.

Number 4 – Top Alameda Brokerage – Of the 955 transactional sides, representing either the buyer or seller, sales agents at Harbor Bay Realty took top honors accounting for 251 sides. In the 101 homes sales, reported so far, where they represented the seller the group at Harbor Bay accounted for nearly $65 million in Sales. Gallagher & Lindsey was second with 123 sides.

Number 3 – Late Summer Rebound – Alameda experienced a late summer sales rebound with 171 sales in August to October. Sales for the first seven months of the year were 209, the late surge accounted for an 80 percent surge in sales. Without these sales Alameda was headed for a very poor sales year, as of December 29, 2009’s 480 sales exceeds 2008’s 444.

Number 2 – Bank Market – Many have described the 2009 housing market as the “year of the bank” with institutions needing to approve short sales and foreclosures on the homes they owned. In some markets this was a significant part of the available inventory. For example, foreclosures made up 87 percent of properties sold through the end of November 2009 in Las Vegas, NV and 60 percent in Sacramento, CA, according to MLS data. Los Angeles MLS data showed distressed property sales rise from 8 percent in 2008 to 35 percent in 2009. In Alameda, 107 of the sales were distressed compared to 2008 that had just 26. In 2009, foreclosed and short sales were 22 percent of the sales compared to 6 percent the prior year this was a very dramatic increase for the Island.

Number 1 – Declining Inventory –The number of homes for sale dropped 28 percent compared to 2008, according to a survey of MLS-listed homes in 27 markets. Major markets that saw the steepest declines include Los Angeles, Las Vegas, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay area, all experiencing year-over-year declines of more than 50 percent. Alameda saw steep declines of inventory as well, starting the year with 149 units for sale peaking to 179 units in mid July and falling to 102 units this week. This is a 43 percent decline from the peak in July.

Happy New Year, Anxious to see what 2010 brings!

Foreclosures on the Rise

2009-12-30T09:30:00.000-08:00

Foreclosures on the Rise

More on the Case-Schiller report

Flat Housing: A Good Thing?

2009-12-29T13:37:00.000-08:00

I was watching a segment from MSNBC about the most recent S&P/Case Schiller housing report and the findings are that we are in a flat housing market based on Sales price. Locally, Alameda has been in a flat market since at least May in terms of inventory and median home prices.

The key according to the experts is inventory and how quickly the bank unwind their holdings of foreclosed properties. Susan Wachter, a real estate professor at Wharton, and Patrick Newport, of IHS Global Insight, discuss whether a flat round of S&P/Case-Shiller numbers is good for home prices in 2010. Newport was negative about the housing market, he believes that home prices will continue to fall because one in four homes is underwater (the borrower owes more than the house is valued) and record foreclosures.

Many in the industry have been predicting a new wave of foreclosures in 2010 and according to Newport the only way to unwind the inventory is to lower prices. This shadow inventory has yet to reveal itself, according to RealtyTrac Alameda has 103 properties in pre-foreclosure, 77 auction properties, and 80 banked owned properties. Since Alameda only shows 12 foreclosures for sale there is a big gap between the listed and held properties by the banks.

Even Newport does not believe that it will be a large decline in prices because most markets have already fallen to apparent bottoms. The SF Bay Area has seen rising prices and multiple offers back, much depends on what the back do in the first half of 2010.

The segment is worth a watch. Sorry about the link the embed code was not working

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/34622689#34622689

Inventory Fall To Near 100 Units

2009-12-28T12:34:00.000-08:00

I hope that everyone had a nice Christmas Holiday, I took the time to relax and not think about Alameda Real Estate, but is now Monday and back to work and back to the blog.

Alameda inventory continues to fall and has come oh so close to falling below a 100 units. As of today, the inventory stands at 102 units. If you compare this to last year, December 29, the Island had 157 units for sale; a decline of 35 percent.

Because inventory continues to decline, the properties that remain, are those that are more difficult to sell. Thirty seven of the properties have been on the market more than 90 days and of the current listings 24 properties were listed in December. The number of distressed properties continues to dominate the inventory.

This week, 37 percent of the inventory was a distressed property. You can see in the chart, that as inventory declines the percent of distressed increased over the past four weeks.

For those searching for a single family residence the choices are becoming very slim with just 56 homes for sale. If you are looking in the 94502, Bay Farm has just 10 homes available for sale.

It appears that investors are trying to sell multi-family buildings with 24 units now available. Seven of those properties, 29 percent, are distressed properties.

So as we gear up for the New Year and New Decade, I expect that the inventory numbers will begin to climb. It will be important to see how single family residence enter the market and how they are valued by buyers. If the market is changing, then this is the segment that we best to gauge how strong the housing recovery is for Alameda.

Alameda Real Estate Inventory


.
.	12/28/2009
.	Total	102
.	94501	84
.	94502	18
.	SFR	56
.	Condo	20
.	Multi-Family	24
.	Short Sale	19
.	Foreclosure	12
.	Price Reductions	35
.	High List	$1,999,000
.	Low List	$129,000
.

The Island Bucks National Sales Trend for November

2009-12-22T10:51:00.000-08:00

Today the National Association of Realtors® reported another big gain in Existing-Home Sales as buyers respond to tax credit and lower home prices.

Much of the rush can be credited to the credit, as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit.

In Alameda, because many buyers did not qualify for the tax credit, saw a sales surge in October. There was a big pull back from October to November as sales fell almost in half.

Nationally the current home sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said

In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline. An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October.

In many markets in the United States the conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, three months of inventory, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns. For buyers they still have good choices, low mortgage interest rates, and now an expanded tax credit.

In Alameda, those conditions are not the same as the Nation. The Island inventory is very low and choices are few. The expanded tax credit will open up some additional buyers and could create a bidding situation on desirable homes.

Just like Alameda, the Nation’s total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October. Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago; exceptions were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.

The San Diego market is interesting to monitor, because part of the region are like Alameda. They have high median home prices and low inventory.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. In Alameda, we saw an 11 percent decline in median home price year-over-year; November 2008 the median was $587,000 compared to this year’s median of $520,000.

Alameda sales for 2009 are slightly behind 2008 totals through November.

The government intervention has spurred home sales I am just not sure if it is sustainable.

Alameda Inventory Still in Decline

2009-12-21T11:12:00.000-08:00

I think the chart says it all, the inventory for homes for sale in Alameda continues to fall. Part is due to the seasonality, part due to an unsure real estate market.

Single family residences fell to under 60 units for the first time this year. Bay Farm (94502) has just 19 units for sale. There are 31 distressed properties for sale making up 30 percent of the inventory.

Short week, short post.

Alameda Inventory Data


.
.	12/21/2009
.	Total	105
.	94501	86
.	94502	19
.	SFR	59
.	Condo	19
.	Multi-Family	25
.	Short Sale	18
.	Foreclosure	13
.	Price Reductions	37
.	High List	$1,899,000
.	Low List	$129,000
.

Loan Mods Are Slow to Convert

2009-12-17T14:23:00.000-08:00

Late last week, the Obama Administration released the latest monthly report for the Making Home Affordable (MHA) loan modification program. The report includes for the first time the number of loan modifications that have transitioned from the trial to permanent phase.

For many a loan modification is the only way to stay in home as loans reset with new interest rates. The government reports that more than 728,000 modifications are under way across the country. However, the report shows that servicers have only converted 31,382 modifications to the permanent phase. This is roughly a four percent conversion of loans to permanent change status.

Not much progress from my view. Servicers have been moving very slow to help borrowers complete the process. Top Administration officials met with servicers in Washington DC this week to urge a faster pace in converting borrowers to permanent modifications.

Keeping borrowers out of foreclosure is important to stable housing market. Of Alameda’s 468 this year, 106 of them were distressed sales. Fifteen percent of the sales in Alameda (71) were a foreclosure.

Borrowers who receive modifications are saving an average of over $550 per month. According to servicer reports, most borrowers in modifications are meeting their responsibilities to make their payments.

This is not the only thing that the Treasury Department is doing to assist in stabilizing the housing market.

Today the Department released new rules regarding “Short Sales” to help financially troubled homeowners who need to sell but can't cover the mortgage. This is to assist homeowners who don't have the income or debt levels to qualify for a loan modification.

About one in 10 home sales this year was a short sale, or an estimated 500,000 sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. In California, the ratio is far higher. Alameda had 35 short sales this year; seven percent of the sales.

To qualify under the new guidelines:

-- The property must be the homeowner's principal residence
-- The homeowner is delinquent on the mortgage or default looks likely
-- The loan was made before Jan. 1 this year and is less than $729,750
-- The borrowers' total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of their before-tax income

The plan is designed to accelerate the complex arrangements that need to be made to come to agreement between lenders, real estate agents, buyers and sellers. Secondary debt holders can receive up to $3,000 to release their claims on the property.

Mid-month Check In On Alameda Home Sales

2009-12-16T13:49:00.000-08:00

Since we are midway through the month, just eight shopping days for you procrastinators, and I though a quick look to see how home sales in Alameda are shaping up.

The good news is the Island already has 17 recorded sales. At this pace we will surpass December 2008's 21 sales. Also in the good news column, is eight of the properties sold so far this month received the asking price or more.

The more concerning item in the data is that five properties we either a short sale or a foreclosure. This is about 30 percent of the properties sold this month fell in the distressed category. The interesting item is the short sales (highlighted in blue) sold below asking compared to foreclosure (highlighted in yellow) sold for above asking. All the distressed properties were below $500,000.

To this point in the month, the median home sale price is $569,000. The average sale price $656,706.

I think that the sales this month are the strongest indication that the Alameda market has stabilized. Homes are selling at a faster pace than the prior year, median home sale price has remained in the high $500,000 range and inventory is clearing out.

The key is to finish the month as strong as it has started.


.	Sale Date	Address	Type	Beds	Baths	Sq Ft	List Price	Sale Price	%
.	12/1/2009	1028 MARIANAS LN	CONDO	4	2	1766	$499000	$420000	84%
.	12/1/2009	2524 BUENA VISTA AVE	SFR	4	3	1761	$415000	$400000	96%
.	12/1/2009	1401 SANTA CLARA AVE	SFR	2	1	1316	$567000	$530000	93%
.	12/1/2009	1132 FOUNTAIN ST	SFR	2	1	1195	$499000	$555000	111%
.	12/2/2009	210 SHEFFIELD RD	SFR	4	2	2256	$849000	$845000	100%
.	12/2/2009	1304 MORTON ST	SFR	3	2	2064	$949999	$938000	99%
.	12/3/2009	3042 THOMPSON AVENUE	SFR	3	2	1490	$699000	$650000	93%
.	12/3/2009	1831 HARVARD DR	SFR	4	2	1604	$725000	$699000	96%
.	12/8/2009	1209 BAY ST	SFR	4	2	3951	$1795000	$1551000	86%
.	12/8/2009	3241 ENCINAL AVENUE	SFR	3	1	1675	$698000	$698000	100%
.	12/8/2009	1037 SAN ANTONIO AV	SFR	3	2	1386	$599000	$601000	100%
.	12/11/2009	2110 EAGLE AVE	SFR	5	1	1880	$434900	$460000	106%
.	12/11/2009	470 COLA BALLENA #B	CONDO	2	2	1626	$599000	$569000	95%
.	12/11/2009	1726 EAGLE AVE	SFR	3	2	1491	$381200	$400000	105%
.	12/14/2009	547 LINCOLN AVE	SFR	5	2	2062	$425700	$430000	101%
.	12/15/2009	726 HARBOR RD	CONDO	2	2	1550	$479000	$479000	100%
.	12/15/2009	268 BRYANT	SFR	5	3	3731	$975000	$939000	96%
.

Mortgage Cramdown Measure Fails in House

2009-12-15T09:26:00.000-08:00

Last Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to reject a mortgage "Cramdown" measure that is sure to impact homeowners here in Alameda. The piece of legislation would have given bankruptcy judges the freedom to change the terms of mortgages for distressed homeowners and modify loans without bank approval.

The banking industry had been vigorously fighting the measure known as "mortgage cramdown," not wanting the courts to control this portion of the induustry. The measure was defeated by more than 50 votes, in a 188-241 decision. The House had approved a similar measure in March over the objections of Republicans and bank lobbyists, but it died in the Senate.

Under present law primary residence can not have the debt reduced. The bankruptcy courts may reduce other loans for a car, vacation home or family farm.

This decision is a blow for those still on the verge of losing their home in Alameda and throughout the country. Just as it appears that parts of the housing market have stabilized hundreds of thousands of distressed homeowners now have one less option to save their home.

The industry counters that the legislation had the potential to do long-term damage to the mortgage market. In a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi the Mortgage Bankers Association stated “Our primary goal should be to help keep more families in their homes and to unfreeze the credit markets,” the MBA letter said. “Cram down legislation fails on both marks. It will encourage more homeowners to opt for bankruptcy, and it will inject new risk into the mortgage market, thus making it more difficult for borrowers to buy, sell or refinance a home.”

The industry has a point. If all of the current homes that are on the verge of foreclosure file for bankruptcy, then credit will become harder to get for the rest of the homeowner community.
The MBA also wrote that the bill “directly undermines” the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). “We clearly need to work to refine and improve this program to increase the rate of permanent modifications, but we should not raise potential new problems for HAMP by layering the possibility of cram down on top of it,” the letter said.

The problem as I see it is that it appears Congress means to push the foreclosure crisis out and hope that a remedy will just come along and the “Banking Industry” has been slow to modify loans. Neither side has found a solution for the homeowner.

Without some type of solution the distressed properties will continue to slowly turn into foreclosures in 2010 and beyond. Combine the introduction of additional inventory with continued high unemployment and that is a receipt for a new glut of housing

I am not sure what the correct answer to the problem is, but a solution does need to be found. It may take more foreclosures that the Banks will need to put on their books and manage for the industry to move faster and upset former homeowners for politicians to find a workable solution.

Alameda Inventory Slope Continues Down

2009-12-14T12:34:00.000-08:00

The housing inventory for Alameda continues to trend down. The fancy graph I included shows the slope has grown very dramatic since July and looks like it will continue to hover around a 100 units.

This week we hit a new low for the year falling to 107 units for sale. The decline is both seasonal and market driven. The current inventory has more than a third of it consisting of distressed property. The Island's listed inventory is 38 percent short sale or foreclosed.

There are just 63 single family residences for sale. The current median list price for the single family home is $625,000. For those searching for a home this leaves very little to select from given the current market.

I think this low inventory will continue until February or March, so if you are home hunting it will take some patience.

Alameda Home Inventory for the Week of December 14


.
.	12/14/2009
.	Total	107
.	94501	86
.	94502	21
.	SFR	63
.	Condo	19
.	Multi-Family	23
.	Short Sale	17
.	Foreclosure	13
.	Price Reductions	41
.	High List	$1,899,000
.	Low List	$149,000
.

Alameda Snapshot: Rudolph Has A New Sleigh

2009-12-11T09:24:00.001-08:00

Today's Alameda Snapshot comes from this year's Alameda Boat Parade. The Photo was taken by jeepskate and is on Flickr.

Rudolph Has A New Sleigh
Originally uploaded by jeepskate

What Makes a Livable City?

2009-12-10T11:45:00.000-08:00

So the other day I was reading a column at SF Gate titled “Big city blues . . . Could a more affordable life, away from the Bay Area, actually be better?” The author Rob Baedeker ponders in a break up letter why it would be good to leave and he interviews two people that have moved from urban life to the smaller communities of Bend, Or and Madison, WI. (Link to column)

Much of what Baedeker writes about is affordability and the cost of living in the Bay Area. In Alameda, where the median home price was $520,000 last month this is a question I am sure many of us has asked. It is not cheap to reside in our Island paradise, and with the looks of the State and Local budget it appears there will be no relief in the future.

But what are the options? I have lived in the Bay Area since 1976 and Alameda since 1977, and I could not image living anywhere else. There is so much to do and be a part of and trading this life for another community would be hard to do.

A little later in the same day, I came across Yahoo! Real Estate’s Best Bang-For-The-Buck Cities. The Forbes list consisted of (Complete List):

1. Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area
2. Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Metro Area
3. Jackson, MS Metro Area
4. Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metro Area
5. Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC Metro Area
6. Wichita, KS Metro Area
7. McAllen- Edinburg-Mission, TX Metro Area
8. Chattanooga, TN-GA Metro Area
9. Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area
10. Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metro Area

and CNNMoney also has a Best Places to live list:
1. Louisville, CO
2. Chanhassen, MN
3. Papillion, NE
4. Middleton, WI
5. Milton, MA
6. Warren, NJ
7. Keller, TX
8. Peachtree City, GA
9. Lake St. Louis, MO
10. Mukilteo, WA

Not sure if the stars were aligning trying to tell me something. When you look at recently sold home in Omaha, three bedroom, three bathroom 2,500 square foot home for $175,000. A monthly payment around $700 and lower property taxes. It sure makes you think.

I am sure all of these places are special, but first glances none are near the Ocean. This is big strike against them since I love to sail, and not on a lake. Most are in the middle of the country where the cost of living is less, but from what I can tell my heating bill (just not this week) would be a lot more. Also without a municipal owned electric provider I am sure I would pay more for in the summer for air conditioning.

So for now, I will pay what is necessary to live in good old Alameda but at some point I am sure I will begin to wonder like Baedeker,

Need A New Home . . . There is an App for That

2009-12-08T10:11:00.000-08:00

So, I purchased and an iPhone about two months ago, and love this phone. I do not know how I lived without my camera, video camera, music player, email, IM and oh yea phone in one devise. But it is the apps that make the phone a must have, they have games, tools, news and business apps. They have an app for almost anything you can think of, but since this is a real estate column I am going to review the newest entry into field and then give you other of my favorite apps.

Today, ZipRealty Introduces Free iPhone application enabling mobile house-hunting in more than 4,800 Locations and Alameda is definitely included since this is a Bay Area company. Buyers can now search listed homes, view photos, and get home prices and appraised values while on the go and allowing them to search for and view full information from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Here is some cool feature from the app:

There’s no start screen search function there is a prompt to share location your current location, and the user is taken right to a display of properties. Clients can begin with new geo-targeted searches for homes that meet their unique home-buying criteria like price range, number of bedrooms or bathrooms, and property type. This means if you are walking or driving along the geo target will start the search where you are currently located. Searchers get to see both listed properties and recently sold properties. There is a filter that allows searching by one or the other if you prefer. The search area can be modified from this point either by panning across the map or manually entering a location.
The application displays search results on Google Maps allowing the client to see homes currently on the market as well as a comprehensive list of recently sold homes with sale prices. By syncing the application directly with Google Maps, users can easily access GPS-enabled turn-by-turn driving or walking directions while exploring new neighborhoods.

This is also one of the fastest real estate apps in terms of downloading information. I tried in three Alameda neighborhoods (Fernside, Gold Coast and Bay Farm) and got good data across town.

The photo display on the property detail page is a filmstrip of all the property photos, Double tap on the photos and you get a good sized photo to review the property. There is no need to collect property flyers any longer.

If you like a home or want to refer back to a property in the future you can create a saved list. Each client’s ZipRealty.com account will sync with the iPhone application after initial login. Homes bookmarked on the web version are easily accessed on the go, and clients can bookmark new homes seen during mobile searches.

In addition to home listings and photos, the application provides access to third-party home value estimates from Zillow, Cyberhomes and Eppraisal. So you do not have to go to multiple sites for valuation.
The application is free and easily available by searching for ZipRealty in the iTunes store under the App section. For additional information and screenshots from the application, please visit www.ziprealty.com.

Two other apps that I really like are Walkscore and Fido Factor.

Walkscore is a great too if you want to figure out how walkable a neighborhood is for pedestrians. My home rates a 93, walkers paradise. The people at Walkscore use things like restaurants, coffee shops, grocery stores to create their score. I use this app a lot when I travel to select a hotel. Many times I do not have a car and I want to have resources close by. If I was buying a home this is a great resource to compare two properties.

The final app I wanted to let you know about is Fido Factor. As a person that has a dog in our home, we like to go to dog friendly businesses. Fido factor helps you locate these types of businesses and rate them. I can tell you without Fido Factor our dog loves two businesses in Alameda: Dog Bone Alley and Books Inc, he get treats at both.

First Week of December Okay for Alameda Home Sales

2009-12-07T11:11:00.000-08:00

With the first week of December already over, just 17 shopping days left for those celebrating Christmas, I wanted to monitor the Alameda sales carefully as we close out the year. The market loses about seven day in the month between the 24th and the 31st for home sales. A few homes will sell and close during the period but for the most part any sale in Alameda has will come in the first 20 days.

The month already has seven home sales recorded for December and at that is a good pace to beat last years sales for the final month of the year. In December 2008, the Island saw just 21 sales and finished the year with 444 sales. Through the first 11 months of 2009, Alameda now has 414 sales and is now just 23 sales short of matching last year. This is amazing since sales were pacing far behind in June, the second of the year proved to be better for sales.

Two of the sales recorded in the first week were short sales. A townhouse at 1028 Marianas, Bay Farm, sold for 84 percent of the asking price. The other short sale received 96 percent of it asking price and sold for $400,000 and according to Zillow, 2524 Buena Vista last sold October 2007 for $770,000. That is a $370,000 loss.

Here are the rest of the sales for the week. Weekly inventory data is below the sales.


.	Sale Date	Address	Zip	Type	Beds	Baths	Sq Feet	List Price	Sale Price	%	Distressed
.	12/1/2009	1028 MARIANAS LN	94502	TWN HSE	4	2	1766	$499000	$420000	84%	Short Sale
.	12/1/2009	2524 BUENA VISTA	94501	SFR	4	3	1761	$415000	$400000	96%	Short Sale
.	12/1/2009	1401 SANTA CLARA	94501	SFR	2	1	1316	$567000	$530000	93%
.	12/1/2009	1132 FOUNTAIN ST	94501	SFR	2	1	1195	$499000	$555000	111%
.	12/3/2009	1831 HARVARD DR	94501	SFR	4	2	1604	$725000	$699000	96%
.	12/2/2009	210 SHEFFIELD RD	94502	SFR	4	2	2256	$849000	$845000	100%
.	12/2/2009	1304 MORTON ST	94501	SFR	3	2	2064	$949999	$938000	99%

Weekly Alameda Inventory Data


.
.	12/7/2009
.	Total	113
.	94501	93
.	94502	20
.	SFR	65
.	Condo	22
.	Multi-Family	24
.	Short Sale	19
.	Foreclosure	13
.	Price Reductions	43
.	High List	$1,799,000
.	Low List	$149,000
.

Alameda Snapshot: Santa Lands Here!

2009-12-04T09:09:00.000-08:00

Today's Alameda Snapshot comes from one of my favorite local Alameda Flickr photographers, Gwen. The photo is from Thompson Ave, and thought it was a good time to post a Holiday photo. Check out Gwen's photo stream, lots of interesting photos of Alameda: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gwen/sets/72157594159673094/

Photo Credit from Flickr: Gewn

Alameda Home Sales Drop in November

2009-12-03T10:54:00.000-08:00

After a strong three months of home sales Alameda saw a buying drop of 48 percent in November. The positive is we saw a couple of additional sales over November of last year.

For the month, Alameda had 34 properties change hands. The best news for home sellers was 16 of the 34 properties sold above the list price. This is a big change in how buyers are reacting in the Alameda real estate market. On average homes are selling right at list price.

One reason for the shift is the decline in both the median and average sale price for November. The median price for an Alameda home was $520,000 and the average was $538,412 this past month. The month over month change was a decline of 8.4 and 8.8 percent, respectively.

The top Alameda home sale was 1261 Saint Charles. The four bedrooms, 2,405 square foot Gold Coast property sold for $1,225,000; $25,000 over asking price. The lowest priced property was a 962 square foot condo at 2205 San Antonio. The property sold for 95 percent of asking price for $250,000.

Two Alameda properties had the biggest spread, 88 percent, between list price and sale price. The homes at 2134 San Jose and 834 Taylor saw buyers come in much lower than the market price.

Single family homes dominated the sales account for 27 of the 34 properties sales. A look at the sales bands show homes in the$400,000 and $500,000 were the most popular with Alameda buyers. The range between $400,000 and $599,999 accounted for 52 percent of the sales. Only one property sold for over $800,000 and that was the million dollar Saint Charles property.

I expected a decline this month and given the Alameda real estate market for the past two years the month was actually pretty good news.


.	Sales Date	Address	Type	List Price	Sale Price
.	11/3/2009	3160 FIJI LN	TOWNHOUSE	$479,500	$475,000
.	11/4/2009	1009 CENTRAL AVENUE	SFR	$460,750	$515,000
.	11/4/2009	404 GREENBRIER RD	SFR	$625,000	$632,000
.	11/5/2009	2101 SHORELINE DR #259	CONDO	$379,000	$375,000
.	11/6/2009	16 SHEPARDSON LN	TOWNHOUSE	$465,000	$455,000
.	11/6/2009	1326 8TH ST	SFR	$560,000	$576,000
.	11/6/2009	1832 YALE DRIVE	SFR	$634,000	$645,000
.	11/6/2009	2129 SAN ANTONIO AVE	SFR	$799,000	$780,000
.	11/9/2009	3232 CALHOUN ST	SFR	$570,000	$565,000
.	11/10/2009	1615 WALNUT ST	SFR	$508,500	$523,000
.	11/10/2009	2032 CLINTON AVE	MFR	$599,000	$605,000
.	11/10/2009	2715 BAYVIEW DRIVE	SFR	$629,000	$625,000
.	11/11/2009	205 PUDDINGSTONE RD	SFR	$549,000	$578,000
.	11/12/2009	2137 OTIS DR #121	CONDO	$284,900	$270,000
.	11/12/2009	11 ECLIPSE CT	CONDO	$535,000	$517,000
.	11/13/2009	339 BROADWAY #205	CONDO	$325,000	$315,000
.	11/13/2009	1420 SAINT CHARLES ST	SFR	$459,900	$460,000
.	11/13/2009	417 CORAL REEF ROAD	SFR	$499,000	$535,000
.	11/16/2009	2394 MARINER SQUARE DR. B-9	SFR	$349,000	$337,000
.	11/17/2009	2205 SAN ANTONIO AVE #F	CONDO	$262,900	$250,000
.	11/17/2009	2151 ALAMEDA AVE	SFR	$300,000	$415,000
.	11/20/2009	2134 SAN JOSE AVE	SFR	$665,000	$585,000
.	11/20/2009	129 NORWICH RD	SFR	$619,000	$629,000
.	11/20/2009	1143 BAY STREET	SFR	$769,000	$769,000
.	11/20/2009	1261 SAINT CHARLES ST	SFR	$1,200,000	$1,225,000
.	11/24/2009	1744 PEARL ST	SFR	$499,990	$468,000
.	11/24/2009	737 HAIGHT AVE	SFR	$499,000	$482,000
.	11/25/2009	2808 OTIS DR	SFR	$435,000	$460,000
.	11/25/2009	1209 EAGLE AVE	SFR	$499,000	$500,000
.	11/25/2009	1422 COTTAGE STREET	SFR	$698,000	$645,000
.	11/25/2009	2438 CORAL SEA ST	SFR	$739,900	$700,000
.	11/27/2009	764 EAGLE AVE	SFR	$469,500	$460,000
.	11/30/2009	834 TAYLOR AVENUE	SFR	$429,500	$380,000
.	11/30/2009	1549 BAY ST	MFR	$534,900	$555,000

Looking at Alameda Housing Compared to the Region

2009-12-02T09:24:00.000-08:00

Seeing that inventory has dropped in Alameda over the past several weeks I thought it was important to show how the region is performing over the past several months.

The SF Bay Area has seen a drop every month for the past 12 months. In November of 2008 the region had 30,668 homes for sale a year later the inventory has fallen to below 15,000 units. It is almost a 28 percent drop in 12 months. From October to November of this year, inventory dropped 2.42 percent for the Bay Area.

There are several reasons for this drop in inventory the first is distressed properties are starting to clear out in many cities. Second is people are waiting to sell if they can and waiting to see what the market is going to do in the next 12-18 months. Finally we have also hit the slow season for home sales.

Almost 45 percent of properties in the Bay Area on the market have used a price reduction to try and stimulate sales on properties that are lagging to produce interest.

In Alameda, we currently have 41 percent of our inventory instituting a price reduction. A good example is in the over million dollar market for Alameda we have 10 properties listed. On Bay Farm, 7 Castlebar is Alameda highest listing at $1,899,000. it is also listed for $1,699,000. It has been on the market since May even with the apparent price reduction.

The other issue is properties that are not selling. Overpriced properties and distressed are making a large portion of properties currently for sale. Overpriced is hard to define, but days on market is a good indicator. Over 50 properties have been on the market more than 60 days. Alameda’s distressed property is 18 percent of the inventory.

The Alameda market is following the region for the most part in terms of price reductions and declining inventory.

If you look at sales in the Bay Area for September and October they have been very strong compared to the first part of the year and this has cleared out much of the inventory. The thing to watch is if we start seeing fewer sales and glut of distressed properties, then the slow market will continue.

Gains for Pending Home Sales

2009-12-01T09:50:00.000-08:00

The National Association of Realtors® reported today nine consecutive months of gains for Pending Home Sales. This according to the association this is a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001.

The Pending Home Sales Index, is a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, the index rose 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2. Basically it is a predictor of homes that will close in the next month or two.

Much of the credit for home sales goes to the tax credit. The Federal tax credit spurred sales in both September and October. Locally, Alameda saw its best two sales months of the year in those months and those 61 days accounted for 31 percent of the sales for the first 10 months period.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.

If I can summarize what Yun said in the release is: Based on our population we are not buying enough homes, but the tax credit is getting people interested. We can see that happening in Alameda. The challenge is inventory. Until we get more homes on the market the Island will continue to bounce along with the market.

Holiday Shopping Has Little Inventory

2009-11-30T10:49:00.000-08:00

Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving Holiday. It has been a crazy month and I have been a little scattered in posting the past three weeks. During that time I forgot that 94501 Real Estate just celebrated one year of publishing blog posts about Alameda Real Estate. I hope that I have another year in me, I had no idea what I was getting into what I started, but it has been tremendous fun.

So on to the Alameda Real Estate news. It is Monday and it is time to update inventory. The Alameda Inventory has been decreasing since mid-July and has bottomed this week to a record low since I started tracking the data a year ago. The Island has 111 units for sale; 67 of the units are single family residence.


.
.	11/30/2009
.	Total	113
.	94501	92
.	94502	21
.	SFR	67
.	Condo	21
.	Multi-Family	23
.	Short Sale	21
.	Foreclosure	14
.	Price Reductions	45
.	High List	$1,899,000
.	Low List	$149,000
.

Part of the reason for the low inventory is strong sales in September and October. Add in seasonality, winter is a slow selling season and we now have very little inventory.

So far, November is looking to be a slow month compared to last year. Early numbers show 25 sales so far for the month and unless we have a strong weekend of closings over the holiday weekend this will fall short of 2008’s 32 sales. So those units that are for sale right now are those that need to be sold.

As evidence of this, five properties were placed on the market during the Thanksgiving weekend; three of those properties were distressed. The new distressed properties are: two bedrooms, two bath foreclosed property at 343 Laguna Vista for $474,900, a three bedroom two and half bath foreclosed home at 801 Park Street for $539,500 and a short sale multi-family duplex (two units) at 1550 8th street for $350,000.

It looks as if the December will be slow in terms of transactions unless more homes come on the market.

Just one other item: A National story that has local impact in terms of homeowners that are struggling to hold on with their current home loan. Today the Obama administration said it will crack down on mortgage companies that are failing to do enough to help borrowers at risk of foreclosure. The Treasury Department said it will withhold payments from mortgage companies that aren't working with borrowers to make loan modifications permanent.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, about 14% of homeowners with mortgages were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. This is at a record level for the ninth straight quarter.

A new group of homeowners now seem to be at threat of losing their home. A Congressional Oversight Panel reported last month that foreclosures are now threatening borrowers who took out conventional, fixed-rate mortgages and put down payments of 10% to 20% on homes that would have been within their means in a normal market. This is something to watch in the coming months.

Alameda Snapshot: Towata Flowers

2009-11-20T10:47:00.000-08:00

With the Holiday Season approaching, I thought a photo from season's past of the window at Towata Flowers would make a good Alameda Snapshot for today. The business has been a staple on Santa Clara and is now closing.

Double Digit Growth in 2010???

2009-11-19T13:23:00.000-08:00

So I was reading this morning that Fannie Mae is forecasting "predicting" an 11% growth in home sales for 2010.

If true . . . this is good news because this has been a deep and long recession and there has been a lot of negative news for at least two years. From what I see in the market make it hard to believe the Fannie Mae economists that are projecting sales of new and existing homes will jump 11 percent next year and that national home prices will stabilize, remaining essentially flat.

The second I can believe that prices will stabilize and will be flat for a year or more, but 11% growth with very little inventory is hard to understand. The inventory will have to come from banks releasing foreclosed holdings and stimulus buyers trying to step up. This is all reliant on financing becoming more accessible for higher priced homes.

Even more optimistic is the mortgage guarantor's monthly housing forecast with sales of existing homes growing by 10 percent, to 5.46 million and new-home sales are expected to rebound by 24 percent.

Our little Alameda market has seen very little movement over the past three months in inventory but sales have been brisk in the same period. November already has 18 sales and is on pace to exceed 2008's 32 sales.

Sales on the Island (January to October) are pacing slower this year compared to last. So to see a big change locally is difficult. The one unknown is the change in the tax credit that now runs until April 30 to be in contract.

The first-time homebuyer tax credit spurred national home sales in the third-quarter, but I am not sure that the boost in sales are sustainable without the government assistance. Job loss will continue to put pressure on home sales, fear of job loss will keep many out of the market. It is my belief that housing will rebound when jobs come back.

Alameda Inventory Continues to Stay Flat

2009-11-16T07:29:00.000-08:00

I have not been posting the past few days because I have been attending the National Association of Realtors Expo in San Diego. Today is the final day of the gathering and I will be heading back home later today.

It has been good to get the pulse of those who work in the industry everyday, but the jammed pack days have kept me away from my duties of keeping up with our local market.

Over the past nine weeks inventory has been flat ranging between 122 and 135 units for sale. This week inventory stayed in this range at 125 units, but there was a visible increase in distressed properties. In terms of total inventory distressed properties account for 37 percent of the unit, this was a four percent increase from the prior week.

Link to Larger Chart

The raw numbers are not huge with four new foreclosures and on additional short sale added to the market over the past week. Looking at data from RealtyTrac it hows that the island has 101 properties in pre-foreclosure, 64 ready for auction and 84 banked owned. That 84 number is the one that concerns me, not knowing when or if these will be release into the market could add pressure to an already fragile market.

Below is the inventory for the week.


.
.	11/16/2009
.	Total	125
.	94501	98
.	94502	27
.	SFR	75
.	Condo	27
.	Multi-Family	21
.	Short Sale	21
.	Foreclosure	15
.	Price Reductions	46
.	High List	$1,899,000
.	Low List	$149,000
.

Alameda Median Price Inches Up in The Third Quarter

2009-11-10T11:31:00.000-08:00

Existing-Home sales surge in many states in Third Quarter, Metro prices moderating according to the latest survey released today by the National Association of Realtors® most states continued to experience a rise existing-home sales in the third quarter, with prices moderating in many metro areas.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.30 million units in the third quarter from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9 percent above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008.

Sales increased from the second quarter in 45 states and the District of Columbia; 28 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C.

The third-quarter median metro area single-family home prices ranged from a low $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. The second most expensive area in the third quarter was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100; followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area of California at $498,800.

Alameda’s median price for the third quarter of this year was $568,000 for all property sales and $650,000 for single family residences. For single family residences this is a $5,000 increase over last year’s third quarter results.

Much of the increase in sales is being credited to the credit. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is a significant factor in sales increasing this past quarter. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said. “It’s given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions.”

The industry economist stated that the buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, and the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.

During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains. The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2 percent below the third quarter of 2008.

“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”

For us locally, it appears that stabilization is very close and may have already happened as sales have grown each of the last four months and homes are beginning to sell at or above asking price. Given the tax credit, interest rates and low inventory my guess is prices for homes will creep up in the coming months. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Spring when the prime selling season begins and the tax credit is gone.

More Homes and Buyers Qualify Under Tax Credit

2009-11-09T08:58:00.000-08:00

I wanted to give a bit more information on the newly signed tax credit because it will have an impact on our local market since it now includes both first time buyers and move-up buyers. The biggest plus for the Alameda market is the legislation increases the income limit for buyers.

Under the prior credit it would have been very difficult for someone to purchase in Alameda give the income limit and the ability to qualify for a loan at the median price. Now that both first time and “move up” buyers, income limits have been increased to 125,000 dollars for single filers and 225,000 dollars for joint filers it is more reaslist for Alameda and Bay Area buyers.

The tax credit is only available on homes priced under 800,000 dollars but with the current Alameda inventory that includes that includes 82 of the current 119 properties for sale; 70 percent.

Similar to previous tax credits, first-time buyers are still eligible to receive up to 8,000 dollars, but this time “move-up” buyers are also eligible to receive up to 6,500 dollars, and income limits have been significantly raised across the board.Here are a few key points about this new tax credit:
To be eligible for the “move up” buyer tax credit, you must have been living in your principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight.

To take advantage of the tax credit you will need to make a qualified home purchase before April 30, 2010 and it has to close by June 30, 2010.

Given current interest rates, the tax credit and prices lower than we have seen in about eight years it may be time to start looking for a home in the non-traditional selling season.

ZipRealty put together an informationa video on the tax credit.

Inventory Data November 9, 2009


.
.	11/9/2009
.	Total	119
.	94501	92
.	94502	27
.	SFR	72
.	Condo	25
.	Multi-Family	20
.	Short Sale	19
.	Foreclosure	11
.	Price Reductions	44
.	High List	$1,899,000
.	Low List	$210,000
.

News Alert: Tax Credit for Homebuyers Signed

2009-11-06T11:36:00.000-08:00

Normally I do not post RE news on Friday, but big news today. President Obama signed a homebuyer tax credit this morning. The just enacted tax credit that applies to more buyers than ever before, and you may be one of them.

Similar to previous tax credits, first-time buyers are still eligible to receive up to 8,000 dollars, but this time “move-up” buyers are also eligible to receive up to 6,500 dollars, and income limits have been significantly raised across the board.

Here are a few key points about this new tax credit:

To be eligible for the “move up” buyer tax credit, you must have been living in your principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight.
For both first time and “move up” buyers, income limits have been increased to 125,000 dollars for single filers and 225,000 dollars for joint filers.
The tax credit is only available on homes priced under 800,000 dollars.
To take advantage of the tax credit you will need to make a qualified home purchase before April 30, 2010.

Have a great Friday and even better weekend.

Alameda Snapshot: JFK in Alameda

2009-11-06T08:19:00.000-08:00

Today's Alameda Snapshot comes from an Encinal Classmate Noreen Roth Sherratt. She was going through family slides and found one of President John F. Kennedy on the runway of NAS Alameda.

Amazing what you can find when you clean out the attic, closet or garage. If you have an amazing Alameda photo please send it along and I will include it in the Friday segment.

Closer Look and Update: October Sales

2009-11-05T12:46:00.000-08:00

After yesterday’s good sales news for the Alameda housing market, I wanted to dive into the numbers a little deeper.

First and update of yesterday numbers, a couple more sales recorded from yesterday to today, so the total is now up to 68 units sold. The dollar volume is almost $40 million in property. Recorded MLS sales for the first 10 months are 403.

This past month distressed properties accounted for 11 of the 68 sales or 16.2 percent of the total properties sold. For the year (January to October), distressed properties accounted for 22.1 percent of the sales. Foreclosures sold at almost 2 to 1 over short sales; 59 and 30.

In terms of dollar volume the Island saw a 23 percent increase in the value of property sold. If you look at January, October was nearly $29 million in the terms of dollar volume.

Link to Lager Chart

This is really exciting news overall for the Alameda market.

The sales trend could also continue in the next few months. The US Senate moved yesterday to extend the home buyers credit. The difference in the extension is they have included step-up buyers and increase the income limit.

If the bill is signed as is, this will open up a whole new group of people that now qualify for the credit. It could possible stimulate more sales.