Closer Look and Update: October Sales

After yesterday’s good sales news for the Alameda housing market, I wanted to dive into the numbers a little deeper.

First and update of yesterday numbers, a couple more sales recorded from yesterday to today, so the total is now up to 68 units sold. The dollar volume is almost $40 million in property. Recorded MLS sales for the first 10 months are 403.

This past month distressed properties accounted for 11 of the 68 sales or 16.2 percent of the total properties sold. For the year (January to October), distressed properties accounted for 22.1 percent of the sales. Foreclosures sold at almost 2 to 1 over short sales; 59 and 30.

In terms of dollar volume the Island saw a 23 percent increase in the value of property sold. If you look at January, October was nearly $29 million in the terms of dollar volume.



Link to Lager Chart

This is really exciting news overall for the Alameda market.

The sales trend could also continue in the next few months. The US Senate moved yesterday to extend the home buyers credit. The difference in the extension is they have included step-up buyers and increase the income limit.

If the bill is signed as is, this will open up a whole new group of people that now qualify for the credit. It could possible stimulate more sales.

Fantastic October for Alameda Home Sales

Wow, October was a great month for Alameda Home Sales. The Real Estate market heated up this past month recording more sales in October than any month over the past 21 months.

The Island had 66 sales that accounted for nearly $39 million in property transferring hands. The past three months have been the strongest number of units sold since June, July and August of 2008; 171 units compared to 2008’s 155.

Both median and average home price were over the past two months. The median saw a month-over-month increase of 10 percent. October’s median home price was $567,500. The single family residence market had 46 sales with a median price of $636,500.

The average price for an Alameda home was $590,095 a five percent increase over September. Most sellers were getting close to their asking price. The average sale price compared to the list price was 97.8 percent and 98.4 percent for single family residences.

This is very good news in what has been a very lackluster year for sales. The past three months put Alameda sales closer to the 2008 total just trailing the prior year by 11 sales. Comparing January to October sales 2008 had 391 sales compared to this year’s 380.



Link to Larger Chart

With all these sales there has been some pressure on inventory. Inventory has fallen to about two months of homes on the market. A balanced market is six months of inventory. Traditionally, when inventory drops to these levels price will go up. Given that it is still difficult to get financing for homes in the Jumbo market, I not sure if we will see a price run up, but given the sales in the first part of the year were very slow, October is still very good news.

October 2009 Sales

. Sale Date Address Type Beds Full Baths Sale Price . 10/1/2009 1411 4TH ST SFR 2 1 $512,000 . 10/1/2009 2815 SEA VIEW PARKWAY SFR 4 3 $1,100,000 . 10/2/2009 1211 PACIFIC AVE MFR 0 0 $550,000 . 10/2/2009 1848 8TH ST SFR 2 1 $485,000 . 10/2/2009 538 PALACE CT MFR 0 0 $370,000 . 10/5/2009 2101 SHORELINE DR #421 CONDO 2 1 $361,000 . 10/5/2009 3037 THOMPSON AVE SFR 2 1 $635,000 . 10/5/2009 3437 SOLOMON LANE TOWNHOUSE 2 2 $430,000 . 10/6/2009 313 FAIR HAVEN RD SFR 3 2 $585,000 . 10/6/2009 970 POST STREET SFR 4 3 $610,000 . 10/7/2009 2 OAK PARK DR SFR 2 2 $499,000 . 10/9/2009 1115 BAY ST SFR 5 3 $1,917,828 . 10/9/2009 117 HUDSON BAY SFR 4 3 $801,000 . 10/9/2009 1719 WILLOW STREET SFR 3 2 $705,000 . 10/9/2009 2051 OTIS DR #A CONDO 2 1 $280,000 . 10/9/2009 2408 CORAL SEA ST SFR 4 2 $702,000 . 10/9/2009 2418 BUENA VISTA AVE SFR 2 1 $333,000 . 10/9/2009 3322 CONSTANCE CIR SFR 3 2 $775,000 . 10/13/2009 912 BROADWAY SFR 3 1 $600,000 . 10/14/2009 1010 CENTRAL AVENUE SFR 4 2 $688,000 . 10/14/2009 1012 CENTRAL AVENUE MFR 0 0 $688,000 . 10/14/2009 1332 FERNSIDE BLVD SFR 2 1 $500,000 . 10/15/2009 125 BAY PARK TER CONDO 2 2 $478,000 . 10/15/2009 1359 REGENT ST SFR 3 2 $705,000 . 10/15/2009 2101 SHORELINE DRIVE #431 CONDO 2 1 $354,000 . 10/15/2009 2421 BUENA VISTA AVE MFR 0 0 $480,000 . 10/15/2009 2622 BAYVIEW DRIVE SFR 4 2 $711,000 . 10/15/2009 2907 BAYVIEW DR SFR 2 2 $495,000 . 10/15/2009 5 EGRET CT SFR 3 2 $610,000 . 10/15/2009 950 SHOREPOINT CT #116 CONDO 2 2 $330,000 . 10/16/2009 135 JUSTIN CIR SFR 4 2 $775,000 . 10/16/2009 1415 WILLOW STREET SFR 5 4 $740,000 . 10/16/2009 1833 SAN ANTONIO SFR 4 2 $775,000 . 10/16/2009 211 BANNISTER CT SFR 3 2 $610,000 . 10/16/2009 3263 FERNSIDE BLVD SFR 4 2 $843,580 . 10/16/2009 380 HOLLISTER SFR 3 2 $745,000 . 10/16/2009 45 ROSS ROAD SFR 3 3 $880,000 . 10/20/2009 1305 REGENT ST SFR 4 2 $565,000 . 10/20/2009 1724 TREGLOAN COURT SFR 2 1 $510,000 . 10/20/2009 2525 WEBB AVE SFR 3 2 $360,000 . 10/21/2009 2101 SHORELINE DR #480 CONDO 2 1 $380,000 . 10/21/2009 3018 BAYO VISTA AVE SFR 3 2 $860,000 . 10/21/2009 3510 SAVANA LN TOWNHOUSE 3 2 $475,000 . 10/22/2009 2429 BUENA VISTA AVE MFR 0 0 $338,000 . 10/22/2009 411 LINCOLN AVE SFR 2 1 $485,000 . 10/22/2009 775 HAIGHT AVE SFR 3 2 $330,000 . 10/23/2009 1023 WALNUT ST SFR 3 2 $680,000 . 10/23/2009 1138 MARIANAS LN TOWNHOUSE 3 2 $450,000 . 10/23/2009 1437 MORTON ST. #H CONDO 1 1 $180,000 . 10/23/2009 146 BASINSIDE WAY SFR 4 2 $1,150,000 . 10/23/2009 219 CYPRESS #B TOWNHOUSE 1 1 $236,000 . 10/23/2009 325 KITTY HAWK RD #UNIT CONDO 2 2 $250,000 . 10/26/2009 3274 MADISON ST SFR 3 2 $638,000 . 10/27/2009 1528 PACIFIC AVE SFR 2 1 $498,000 . 10/27/2009 2066 EAGLE AVE SFR 3 1 $590,000 . 10/28/2009 3 FITCH CT SFR 4 2 $665,500 . 10/30/2009 1004 BEGONIA DR SFR 4 3 $660,000 . 10/30/2009 1142 SILVA LN SFR 3 2 $559,888 . 10/30/2009 1343 BROADWAY SFR 5 2 $775,000 . 10/30/2009 1416 5TH ST SFR 2 1 $370,000 . 10/30/2009 1621 BROADWAY MFR 0 0 $848,500 . 10/30/2009 1825 SHORELINE DR #310 CONDO 2 2 $350,000 . 10/30/2009 2137 OTIS DR #316 CONDO 1 1 $239,000 . 10/30/2009 429 HARBOR LIGHT RD SFR 4 2 $570,000 . 10/30/2009 813 PORTOLA AVE SFR 3 1 $785,000 . 10/30/2009 949 BUENA VISTA AVE SFR 3 2 $490,000

What Type of Market? Buyer or Seller

It is November with just 59 days left in the year and in the Alameda Real Estate world the past 10 months it has been a difficult time for those selling their home, those who saw loans reset and could not afford them any longer and for buyers looking for a variety in inventory.

A year ago, there were nearly 200 units for sale, today we are down to 122. This represents about three months of inventory. In a balanced market buyers could expect to six about six months of inventory to choose from, as they shop for a home.

Alameda's market is a little strange right now, all indications are that it is moving from a buyer's market to a seller's; with low inventory, homes selling for over asking and desirable location. The developing trend of homes selling for over asking price is new. Realistically, I think the sentiment is that buyer's still hold the advantage.

I do not see anything changing real soon. The credit market is still very difficult especially for those needing a Jumbo loan, which is most of the single family residences in Alameda. It also appears that step-up buyers, those looking to buy a more expensive property than they own, are not stepping up.

The Senate is currently looking at extending the home buyer’s credit and in the most recent bill the legislature is looking to address this issue by allowing other than new home buyers and increasing the income limit.

In the interim, it appears that Alameda homeowners are willing to sit on the sidelines. The only influencing factor on our local housing market will be inventory. Any large increase or decrease is what will impact pricing.

The chart represents inventory since July. The downward trend is significant, but it has flattened over the past six weeks.


Link to Larger Chart

Alameda Inventory -- November 2

. . 11/2/2009 . Total 122 . 94501 96 . 94502 26 . SFR 72 . Condo 26 . Multi-Family 22 . Short Sale 16 . Foreclosure 11 . Price Reductions 40 . High List $1,899,000 . Low List $175,000 . .