Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Wake Me Up When September Ends

For the Alameda Real Estate market the month of September is shaping up to be a pretty good month in terms of sales and could just wake up the Housing rebound for our community.

If the Island housing market holds this pace we would close the month at 50 units sold and it would be a big jump in year-over-year sales and be the springboard for a turn. September 2008, saw just 32 sales for the entire month if 2009 can outpace 2008 we could turn this year around in the number of sales.

September is pivotal because it traditionally is the close of the home selling season and the final three months of the year may not provide enough push to keep the sales momentum. It is also would be the first sign of a change in the local market. August was a good transition month, posting sales that exceed its prior year totals for the month after four months saw totals below their 2008 numbers.

We are currently pacing 6 percent below 2008 sales for the same time last year. If the market can pull out a strong September then this could be a positive step in the housing market turning.




Annual Total

Sept. 15 Total

$ Volume

Jan1 -- Sept. 15 Sales Change 2009 vs. ( X)

$ Volume Change Partial 2009 vs. (All of X)


2009 400* 308 $174,498,015


2008 463 327 $288,519,712 -6% -40%


2007 556 418 $382,388,008 -26% -54%


2006 691 493 $482,720,572 -38% -64%


*2009 Annual is Estimated; all data is from the MLS and may not represent the entire market.


Link to Spreadsheet

In the chart you can see that the market has slid since 2006, in terms on the number transactions and the dollar volume. Even though we have not completed 2009, you can see that we are currently 64 percent behind in dollar volume verses 2006. This is especially important for those in City Hall that count the transfer tax and tax base.

So, September is going to be either the continuation of the 2008 nightmare housing market or an awaking of home sale.

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