Holiday Shopping Has Little Inventory

Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving Holiday. It has been a crazy month and I have been a little scattered in posting the past three weeks. During that time I forgot that 94501 Real Estate just celebrated one year of publishing blog posts about Alameda Real Estate. I hope that I have another year in me, I had no idea what I was getting into what I started, but it has been tremendous fun.

So on to the Alameda Real Estate news. It is Monday and it is time to update inventory. The Alameda Inventory has been decreasing since mid-July and has bottomed this week to a record low since I started tracking the data a year ago. The Island has 111 units for sale; 67 of the units are single family residence.

. . 11/30/2009 . Total 113 . 94501 92 . 94502 21 . SFR 67 . Condo 21 . Multi-Family 23 . Short Sale 21 . Foreclosure 14 . Price Reductions 45 . High List $1,899,000 . Low List $149,000 .

Part of the reason for the low inventory is strong sales in September and October. Add in seasonality, winter is a slow selling season and we now have very little inventory.

So far, November is looking to be a slow month compared to last year. Early numbers show 25 sales so far for the month and unless we have a strong weekend of closings over the holiday weekend this will fall short of 2008’s 32 sales. So those units that are for sale right now are those that need to be sold.

As evidence of this, five properties were placed on the market during the Thanksgiving weekend; three of those properties were distressed. The new distressed properties are: two bedrooms, two bath foreclosed property at 343 Laguna Vista for $474,900, a three bedroom two and half bath foreclosed home at 801 Park Street for $539,500 and a short sale multi-family duplex (two units) at 1550 8th street for $350,000.



It looks as if the December will be slow in terms of transactions unless more homes come on the market.

Just one other item: A National story that has local impact in terms of homeowners that are struggling to hold on with their current home loan. Today the Obama administration said it will crack down on mortgage companies that are failing to do enough to help borrowers at risk of foreclosure. The Treasury Department said it will withhold payments from mortgage companies that aren't working with borrowers to make loan modifications permanent.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, about 14% of homeowners with mortgages were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. This is at a record level for the ninth straight quarter.

A new group of homeowners now seem to be at threat of losing their home. A Congressional Oversight Panel reported last month that foreclosures are now threatening borrowers who took out conventional, fixed-rate mortgages and put down payments of 10% to 20% on homes that would have been within their means in a normal market. This is something to watch in the coming months.

Alameda Snapshot: Towata Flowers

With the Holiday Season approaching, I thought a photo from season's past of the window at Towata Flowers would make a good Alameda Snapshot for today. The business has been a staple on Santa Clara and is now closing.

Double Digit Growth in 2010???

So I was reading this morning that Fannie Mae is forecasting "predicting" an 11% growth in home sales for 2010.

If true . . . this is good news because this has been a deep and long recession and there has been a lot of negative news for at least two years. From what I see in the market make it hard to believe the Fannie Mae economists that are projecting sales of new and existing homes will jump 11 percent next year and that national home prices will stabilize, remaining essentially flat.

The second I can believe that prices will stabilize and will be flat for a year or more, but 11% growth with very little inventory is hard to understand. The inventory will have to come from banks releasing foreclosed holdings and stimulus buyers trying to step up. This is all reliant on financing becoming more accessible for higher priced homes.

Even more optimistic is the mortgage guarantor's monthly housing forecast with sales of existing homes growing by 10 percent, to 5.46 million and new-home sales are expected to rebound by 24 percent.

Our little Alameda market has seen very little movement over the past three months in inventory but sales have been brisk in the same period. November already has 18 sales and is on pace to exceed 2008's 32 sales.

Sales on the Island (January to October) are pacing slower this year compared to last. So to see a big change locally is difficult. The one unknown is the change in the tax credit that now runs until April 30 to be in contract.

The first-time homebuyer tax credit spurred national home sales in the third-quarter, but I am not sure that the boost in sales are sustainable without the government assistance. Job loss will continue to put pressure on home sales, fear of job loss will keep many out of the market. It is my belief that housing will rebound when jobs come back.

Alameda Inventory Continues to Stay Flat

I have not been posting the past few days because I have been attending the National Association of Realtors Expo in San Diego. Today is the final day of the gathering and I will be heading back home later today.

It has been good to get the pulse of those who work in the industry everyday, but the jammed pack days have kept me away from my duties of keeping up with our local market.

Over the past nine weeks inventory has been flat ranging between 122 and 135 units for sale. This week inventory stayed in this range at 125 units, but there was a visible increase in distressed properties. In terms of total inventory distressed properties account for 37 percent of the unit, this was a four percent increase from the prior week.


Link to Larger Chart

The raw numbers are not huge with four new foreclosures and on additional short sale added to the market over the past week. Looking at data from RealtyTrac it hows that the island has 101 properties in pre-foreclosure, 64 ready for auction and 84 banked owned. That 84 number is the one that concerns me, not knowing when or if these will be release into the market could add pressure to an already fragile market.

Below is the inventory for the week.

. . 11/16/2009 . Total 125 . 94501 98 . 94502 27 . SFR 75 . Condo 27 . Multi-Family 21 . Short Sale 21 . Foreclosure 15 . Price Reductions 46 . High List $1,899,000 . Low List $149,000 .

Alameda Median Price Inches Up in The Third Quarter

Existing-Home sales surge in many states in Third Quarter, Metro prices moderating according to the latest survey released today by the National Association of Realtors® most states continued to experience a rise existing-home sales in the third quarter, with prices moderating in many metro areas.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.30 million units in the third quarter from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9 percent above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008.

Sales increased from the second quarter in 45 states and the District of Columbia; 28 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C.

The third-quarter median metro area single-family home prices ranged from a low $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. The second most expensive area in the third quarter was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100; followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area of California at $498,800.

Alameda’s median price for the third quarter of this year was $568,000 for all property sales and $650,000 for single family residences. For single family residences this is a $5,000 increase over last year’s third quarter results.

Much of the increase in sales is being credited to the credit. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is a significant factor in sales increasing this past quarter. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said. “It’s given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions.”

The industry economist stated that the buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, and the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.

During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains. The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2 percent below the third quarter of 2008.

“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”

For us locally, it appears that stabilization is very close and may have already happened as sales have grown each of the last four months and homes are beginning to sell at or above asking price. Given the tax credit, interest rates and low inventory my guess is prices for homes will creep up in the coming months. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Spring when the prime selling season begins and the tax credit is gone.

More Homes and Buyers Qualify Under Tax Credit

I wanted to give a bit more information on the newly signed tax credit because it will have an impact on our local market since it now includes both first time buyers and move-up buyers. The biggest plus for the Alameda market is the legislation increases the income limit for buyers.

Under the prior credit it would have been very difficult for someone to purchase in Alameda give the income limit and the ability to qualify for a loan at the median price. Now that both first time and “move up” buyers, income limits have been increased to 125,000 dollars for single filers and 225,000 dollars for joint filers it is more reaslist for Alameda and Bay Area buyers.

The tax credit is only available on homes priced under 800,000 dollars but with the current Alameda inventory that includes that includes 82 of the current 119 properties for sale; 70 percent.

Similar to previous tax credits, first-time buyers are still eligible to receive up to 8,000 dollars, but this time “move-up” buyers are also eligible to receive up to 6,500 dollars, and income limits have been significantly raised across the board.Here are a few key points about this new tax credit:
To be eligible for the “move up” buyer tax credit, you must have been living in your principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight.

To take advantage of the tax credit you will need to make a qualified home purchase before April 30, 2010 and it has to close by June 30, 2010.

Given current interest rates, the tax credit and prices lower than we have seen in about eight years it may be time to start looking for a home in the non-traditional selling season.

ZipRealty put together an informationa video on the tax credit.



Inventory Data November 9, 2009

. . 11/9/2009 . Total 119 . 94501 92 . 94502 27 . SFR 72 . Condo 25 . Multi-Family 20 . Short Sale 19 . Foreclosure 11 . Price Reductions 44 . High List $1,899,000 . Low List $210,000 .

News Alert: Tax Credit for Homebuyers Signed

Normally I do not post RE news on Friday, but big news today. President Obama signed a homebuyer tax credit this morning. The just enacted tax credit that applies to more buyers than ever before, and you may be one of them.

Similar to previous tax credits, first-time buyers are still eligible to receive up to 8,000 dollars, but this time “move-up” buyers are also eligible to receive up to 6,500 dollars, and income limits have been significantly raised across the board.

Here are a few key points about this new tax credit:

• To be eligible for the “move up” buyer tax credit, you must have been living in your principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight.
• For both first time and “move up” buyers, income limits have been increased to 125,000 dollars for single filers and 225,000 dollars for joint filers.
• The tax credit is only available on homes priced under 800,000 dollars.
• To take advantage of the tax credit you will need to make a qualified home purchase before April 30, 2010.

Have a great Friday and even better weekend.

Alameda Snapshot: JFK in Alameda

Today's Alameda Snapshot comes from an Encinal Classmate Noreen Roth Sherratt. She was going through family slides and found one of President John F. Kennedy on the runway of NAS Alameda.

Amazing what you can find when you clean out the attic, closet or garage. If you have an amazing Alameda photo please send it along and I will include it in the Friday segment.

Closer Look and Update: October Sales

After yesterday’s good sales news for the Alameda housing market, I wanted to dive into the numbers a little deeper.

First and update of yesterday numbers, a couple more sales recorded from yesterday to today, so the total is now up to 68 units sold. The dollar volume is almost $40 million in property. Recorded MLS sales for the first 10 months are 403.

This past month distressed properties accounted for 11 of the 68 sales or 16.2 percent of the total properties sold. For the year (January to October), distressed properties accounted for 22.1 percent of the sales. Foreclosures sold at almost 2 to 1 over short sales; 59 and 30.

In terms of dollar volume the Island saw a 23 percent increase in the value of property sold. If you look at January, October was nearly $29 million in the terms of dollar volume.



Link to Lager Chart

This is really exciting news overall for the Alameda market.

The sales trend could also continue in the next few months. The US Senate moved yesterday to extend the home buyers credit. The difference in the extension is they have included step-up buyers and increase the income limit.

If the bill is signed as is, this will open up a whole new group of people that now qualify for the credit. It could possible stimulate more sales.

Fantastic October for Alameda Home Sales

Wow, October was a great month for Alameda Home Sales. The Real Estate market heated up this past month recording more sales in October than any month over the past 21 months.

The Island had 66 sales that accounted for nearly $39 million in property transferring hands. The past three months have been the strongest number of units sold since June, July and August of 2008; 171 units compared to 2008’s 155.

Both median and average home price were over the past two months. The median saw a month-over-month increase of 10 percent. October’s median home price was $567,500. The single family residence market had 46 sales with a median price of $636,500.

The average price for an Alameda home was $590,095 a five percent increase over September. Most sellers were getting close to their asking price. The average sale price compared to the list price was 97.8 percent and 98.4 percent for single family residences.

This is very good news in what has been a very lackluster year for sales. The past three months put Alameda sales closer to the 2008 total just trailing the prior year by 11 sales. Comparing January to October sales 2008 had 391 sales compared to this year’s 380.



Link to Larger Chart

With all these sales there has been some pressure on inventory. Inventory has fallen to about two months of homes on the market. A balanced market is six months of inventory. Traditionally, when inventory drops to these levels price will go up. Given that it is still difficult to get financing for homes in the Jumbo market, I not sure if we will see a price run up, but given the sales in the first part of the year were very slow, October is still very good news.

October 2009 Sales

. Sale Date Address Type Beds Full Baths Sale Price . 10/1/2009 1411 4TH ST SFR 2 1 $512,000 . 10/1/2009 2815 SEA VIEW PARKWAY SFR 4 3 $1,100,000 . 10/2/2009 1211 PACIFIC AVE MFR 0 0 $550,000 . 10/2/2009 1848 8TH ST SFR 2 1 $485,000 . 10/2/2009 538 PALACE CT MFR 0 0 $370,000 . 10/5/2009 2101 SHORELINE DR #421 CONDO 2 1 $361,000 . 10/5/2009 3037 THOMPSON AVE SFR 2 1 $635,000 . 10/5/2009 3437 SOLOMON LANE TOWNHOUSE 2 2 $430,000 . 10/6/2009 313 FAIR HAVEN RD SFR 3 2 $585,000 . 10/6/2009 970 POST STREET SFR 4 3 $610,000 . 10/7/2009 2 OAK PARK DR SFR 2 2 $499,000 . 10/9/2009 1115 BAY ST SFR 5 3 $1,917,828 . 10/9/2009 117 HUDSON BAY SFR 4 3 $801,000 . 10/9/2009 1719 WILLOW STREET SFR 3 2 $705,000 . 10/9/2009 2051 OTIS DR #A CONDO 2 1 $280,000 . 10/9/2009 2408 CORAL SEA ST SFR 4 2 $702,000 . 10/9/2009 2418 BUENA VISTA AVE SFR 2 1 $333,000 . 10/9/2009 3322 CONSTANCE CIR SFR 3 2 $775,000 . 10/13/2009 912 BROADWAY SFR 3 1 $600,000 . 10/14/2009 1010 CENTRAL AVENUE SFR 4 2 $688,000 . 10/14/2009 1012 CENTRAL AVENUE MFR 0 0 $688,000 . 10/14/2009 1332 FERNSIDE BLVD SFR 2 1 $500,000 . 10/15/2009 125 BAY PARK TER CONDO 2 2 $478,000 . 10/15/2009 1359 REGENT ST SFR 3 2 $705,000 . 10/15/2009 2101 SHORELINE DRIVE #431 CONDO 2 1 $354,000 . 10/15/2009 2421 BUENA VISTA AVE MFR 0 0 $480,000 . 10/15/2009 2622 BAYVIEW DRIVE SFR 4 2 $711,000 . 10/15/2009 2907 BAYVIEW DR SFR 2 2 $495,000 . 10/15/2009 5 EGRET CT SFR 3 2 $610,000 . 10/15/2009 950 SHOREPOINT CT #116 CONDO 2 2 $330,000 . 10/16/2009 135 JUSTIN CIR SFR 4 2 $775,000 . 10/16/2009 1415 WILLOW STREET SFR 5 4 $740,000 . 10/16/2009 1833 SAN ANTONIO SFR 4 2 $775,000 . 10/16/2009 211 BANNISTER CT SFR 3 2 $610,000 . 10/16/2009 3263 FERNSIDE BLVD SFR 4 2 $843,580 . 10/16/2009 380 HOLLISTER SFR 3 2 $745,000 . 10/16/2009 45 ROSS ROAD SFR 3 3 $880,000 . 10/20/2009 1305 REGENT ST SFR 4 2 $565,000 . 10/20/2009 1724 TREGLOAN COURT SFR 2 1 $510,000 . 10/20/2009 2525 WEBB AVE SFR 3 2 $360,000 . 10/21/2009 2101 SHORELINE DR #480 CONDO 2 1 $380,000 . 10/21/2009 3018 BAYO VISTA AVE SFR 3 2 $860,000 . 10/21/2009 3510 SAVANA LN TOWNHOUSE 3 2 $475,000 . 10/22/2009 2429 BUENA VISTA AVE MFR 0 0 $338,000 . 10/22/2009 411 LINCOLN AVE SFR 2 1 $485,000 . 10/22/2009 775 HAIGHT AVE SFR 3 2 $330,000 . 10/23/2009 1023 WALNUT ST SFR 3 2 $680,000 . 10/23/2009 1138 MARIANAS LN TOWNHOUSE 3 2 $450,000 . 10/23/2009 1437 MORTON ST. #H CONDO 1 1 $180,000 . 10/23/2009 146 BASINSIDE WAY SFR 4 2 $1,150,000 . 10/23/2009 219 CYPRESS #B TOWNHOUSE 1 1 $236,000 . 10/23/2009 325 KITTY HAWK RD #UNIT CONDO 2 2 $250,000 . 10/26/2009 3274 MADISON ST SFR 3 2 $638,000 . 10/27/2009 1528 PACIFIC AVE SFR 2 1 $498,000 . 10/27/2009 2066 EAGLE AVE SFR 3 1 $590,000 . 10/28/2009 3 FITCH CT SFR 4 2 $665,500 . 10/30/2009 1004 BEGONIA DR SFR 4 3 $660,000 . 10/30/2009 1142 SILVA LN SFR 3 2 $559,888 . 10/30/2009 1343 BROADWAY SFR 5 2 $775,000 . 10/30/2009 1416 5TH ST SFR 2 1 $370,000 . 10/30/2009 1621 BROADWAY MFR 0 0 $848,500 . 10/30/2009 1825 SHORELINE DR #310 CONDO 2 2 $350,000 . 10/30/2009 2137 OTIS DR #316 CONDO 1 1 $239,000 . 10/30/2009 429 HARBOR LIGHT RD SFR 4 2 $570,000 . 10/30/2009 813 PORTOLA AVE SFR 3 1 $785,000 . 10/30/2009 949 BUENA VISTA AVE SFR 3 2 $490,000

What Type of Market? Buyer or Seller

It is November with just 59 days left in the year and in the Alameda Real Estate world the past 10 months it has been a difficult time for those selling their home, those who saw loans reset and could not afford them any longer and for buyers looking for a variety in inventory.

A year ago, there were nearly 200 units for sale, today we are down to 122. This represents about three months of inventory. In a balanced market buyers could expect to six about six months of inventory to choose from, as they shop for a home.

Alameda's market is a little strange right now, all indications are that it is moving from a buyer's market to a seller's; with low inventory, homes selling for over asking and desirable location. The developing trend of homes selling for over asking price is new. Realistically, I think the sentiment is that buyer's still hold the advantage.

I do not see anything changing real soon. The credit market is still very difficult especially for those needing a Jumbo loan, which is most of the single family residences in Alameda. It also appears that step-up buyers, those looking to buy a more expensive property than they own, are not stepping up.

The Senate is currently looking at extending the home buyer’s credit and in the most recent bill the legislature is looking to address this issue by allowing other than new home buyers and increasing the income limit.

In the interim, it appears that Alameda homeowners are willing to sit on the sidelines. The only influencing factor on our local housing market will be inventory. Any large increase or decrease is what will impact pricing.

The chart represents inventory since July. The downward trend is significant, but it has flattened over the past six weeks.


Link to Larger Chart

Alameda Inventory -- November 2

. . 11/2/2009 . Total 122 . 94501 96 . 94502 26 . SFR 72 . Condo 26 . Multi-Family 22 . Short Sale 16 . Foreclosure 11 . Price Reductions 40 . High List $1,899,000 . Low List $175,000 . .