Round Table Discusses Housing Market

Forbes magazine holds a monthly round table discussion with some of the real estate leaders each month to discuss trends. This month discussion was titled "Housing Talk: Could The Rally Die?" the moderator Stephane Fitch, explores the ever volatile Golden State as Experts continue to fret over California's autumn numbers. Since Alameda is impacted with California and high unemployment, I thought it worth passing along.

The Panel includes Donald Trump Jr., Trump Organization; Pat Lashinsky, CEO of ZipRealty; Michael Feder, Radar Logic and Spencer Rascoff, Zillow.

It is an interesting read. They cover inventory, employment and what is needed to get things moving in the housing sector.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/03/real-estate-advisor-personal-finance-october-housing-panel.html

Has The Housing Recovery Begun? Maybe

Some more positive news from the July numbers as home prices rose for the third month in a row, the data shows that housing recover is underway but it is still very fragile. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities climbed 1.2 percent from June to a reading of 143.05. The index has risen at an 8 percent annualized rate in the three months to July, the best performance since early 2006.

The index, however, is down about 33 percent from the peak in mid-2006. Home prices are now at levels not seen since the third quarter of 2003. And prices in Las Vegas, Detroit and Seattle are still falling, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Home prices continue to fall and are 13.3 percent below July a year ago. The annual declines have manifested in all 20 cities that the report covers. This decline has been reported for six straight months.

In Alameda, we have seen median home price rise and the inventory has been sucked up over the past three months. The Island reached a 45 week low of 122 units. This is 32 percent decline in 10 weeks. Normally low inventory means a price will begin to rise. A preliminary look at September sales shows that this may be the fact.

There are still several risks to the national housing recovery, including rising unemployment and foreclosures and the expiration of a tax credit for first-time home buyers.

The biggest factor, in my opinion, still weighing on the housing sector is jobs and wages. Wages in the United States are lagging and have declined 5 percent year-over-year and job loss continues to grow. This segment of the economy needs to stabilize for housing to correct.

As I have written about in the past, the shadow inventory of distressed properties will have a major impact. If the banks are still holding on to a large number of homes and they flood the market in the spring this will destabilize the housing market.

Some experts believe that the housing market has hit bottom. Low price inventory has cleared in many cities and bidding wars have evolved in many of these areas. The upper levels of the market are having more trouble with higher priced homes sitting longer.Places like Las Vegas that had a gamblers feel to housing was one of the most speculative markets during the boom. As quick as you win in Vegas you also lost with homes down almost 55 percent from their peak. In August, almost 80 percent of home resales in Nevada were either a foreclosure or a sale below the value of the mortgage, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors. The Detroit housing market is reeling from layoffs in the automotive industry. Seattle, by contrast, was one of the last areas to enter the downturn so prices there have yet to hit bottom.

The Alameda Real Estate market has been more like Austin, TX and Salt Lake City, UT where the pullback has been more moderate. The good part for Alameda homeowners is the region is bouncing back.Home prices rose in 13 metro areas for at least three straight months. The biggest gains in July were in Minneapolis, San Francisco and Chicago.


More on Case-Shiller

Alameda Real Estate: By The Numbers

It is amazing that 2008 is rapidly coming to a close. We are now midway through the fourth quarter of 2008, and before the new year starts, I wanted to take a look back at a couple of third quarter housing reports produced by online real estate valuation estimator Zillow and online residential real estate brokerage ZipRealty. Both companies produce housing reports that track the market, home values, sales and inventory and wanted to look at these reports and see what it means for Alameda.

Zillow reports, in their Real Estate Market Report, that Alameda experienced a 1.3% decline in pricing from the prior quarter. The year-over-year change was a -7.8% in value to Alameda homes. The good news is Island has not seen the same decline as the national average 9.7%. Zillow reports that the San Francisco, CA Metro Area has current index of $567,000 which is a one year change of -14.4% compared to Alameda’s index of $600,000 to the -7.8% change in the 12 months prior.

Prices in Alameda have taken a hit in the macro but the good news is the Island has held up well during the real estate downturn. Taking a look at the ZipRealty Quarterly Housing Report, reveled that sellers in Alameda are accepting offers about 98% of the list price.

City	Zipcode	Sales	Ave List Pirce	Ave. Sale Price	%
Alameda	94501	101	$651,473.47	$637,765.89	97.90%
Alameda	94502	33	$743,346.94	$733,665.15	98.70%

Looking at the report, this shows that Alameda is doing well for the Bay Area. The Bernal Heights neighborhood in San Francisco was tops in the Bay Area with offers on average at 103% of list. Eleven zipcodes were below 95%, at the bottom was the Green Valley area of Fairfield at 92% of list.

Sales from September to October are up, but the average sale price and average price per square foot declined. Although it is not a trend, I think that it shows that people (buyers) are starting to find prices that are attractive. Not so good news if you are selling.

I guess it is tough to swallow the fact that housing market continues to decline. Even though Alameda is not suffering like the rest of the country or even parts of the Bay Area the number show that 21% of Alameda's listing are either a foreclosure or short sale. With the traditional slow home sales period approaching during the holiday season, it will be interesting to see what happens to inventory over the next couple of months.

Weekly Inventory Report -- Total Alameda Inventory

Data Pulled November 15, 2008 at 7:30 AM

Total Listings: 183

Single Family Residences: 108

Condominiums: 44

Multi-Family: 31

Short Sales: 21

Foreclosures: 17

Highst List Price: $1,995,000

Lowest List Price: $210,000

Note: The lowest list price was $165,000 for a houseboat at Barnhill Marina. I did not include it as the low listing, because it is not on land. There are three house boats included in the numbers.

With the housing market being so tough, I thought a little humor for Monday is appropriate. So Welcome, to 94501 Real Estate!