Thursday, July 23, 2009

Confusion Reigns

Confused by all the Real Estate news, me too. It appears that all the data is conflicting and depending on the day it can be either rosy or gloom, or in the case of today both.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously occupied homes rose 3.6 percent in June. The real estate trade group released numbers that stated sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, above the 4.84 million units analysts had been expecting. Most would read into this that housing market is beginning to recover, and in turn the overall economy, is in fact recovering.

But wait a minute. The most excellent Real Estate reporter Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle wrote: Foreclosures dip but default notices rise.
See Story -- Link

Information from MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate data company shows that default notices for the San Francisco Bay Area hit a record high. According to the article and DataQuick: Notices of default, sent to people who are delinquent on their home loans, totaled nearly 20,000 for the nine-county Bay Area region in the Second Quarter of this year.

I took a look at the Alameda Zip codes and it showed that the Main Island (94501) of Alameda saw a 32.5 percent increase in notices of default year-over-year. Bay Farm (94502) saw a jump of 16.7 percent in the same time frame.


Community ZIP code TD or NoD Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Year-over-year change

Number per

1,000 homes (2009 Q2)


Alameda 94501 NoD 40 53 32.5% 4.6


Alameda 94502 NoD 12 14 16.7% 2.7


Alameda 94501 TD 17 20 17.6% 1.7


Alameda 94502 TD 2 1 -50% 0.2


The number of Alameda homes that converted to trustees deeds (TD), meaning they completed the foreclosure process increased in Second Quarter 2009. This past quarter saw 21 homes revert to the trustee compared to 19 Second Quarter last year.

Regionally and State wide the news is reflects a downward trend. The 6,929 Bay Area foreclosures reflected a 25.4 percent drop from the second quarter last year and the state's 45,667 foreclosures were a 27.9 percent decline. Much of may be attributed to the Banks dealing with a refinancing boom and loan modification boom that happened in the quarter.

So what does it all mean? That another report will be out soon and eventually all this information will let us know exactly where the market stands.

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