Wednesday, July 22, 2009

The Local Alameda Market Needs Volume

I wanted to take a step back and look long term at the Alameda home sales market. With all the different reports that come out on an almost daily basis forecasting everything from doom and gloom to a new housing bounce, I wanted to see how sales are impacting our local housing market.

I started with two questions:

What are homes selling for compared to the list price?

What is the Dollar Volume of homes sold in Alameda?

The answer to the first question is pretty good news. Homes for the past 18 months have been selling between 96 to 98 percent of the list price. This means that the Alameda market has not been very volatile in terms of a glut of low ball offers. I also think it means that sellers have been realistic in pricing their properties in the current market.

You can see in chart below that the First Quarter of the Year was very tough for sellers with the average sale price at 95 percent off the list price. This ratio climbed in the second quarter as sale prices have seemed to stabilize and the market has started to see homes selling at or above list price.

The Answer to the sales volume question is not very encouraging, especially if you are a Realtor or the Tax Man.

Just looking at the second quarter volume is down 22 percent year-over-year. The prior year saw the same steep decline when the second quarter in 2008 recorded a 23 percent decline. In dollar terms the volume in 2007 was almost $116 Million compared to 2009's $69 Million for the quarter; a 40 percent decline.

The second showed that sales in Alameda continue to lag compared to past quarters.

The second and third quarter of 2007 were very strong and the decline started in the fourth quarter of that year. The first quarter of 2008 saw sales drop to just over $39 Million, its lowest point in a review of the last 10 quarters.

Even though July is not over, sales in dollar volume is way down. With 22 days in the books it would take a lot of the end of the month closing to cut into the 76 percent deficit it has with 2008.

Link to Chart


July 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2008


List to Sale Ratio 97.99% 97.09% 95.56% 97.37% 98.07% 97.66% 96.61%


Year-Over-Year Change -0.67% -0.58% -1.09% -0.87% -1.42% -2.58% -2.05%



Sales Dollar Volume $9,038,900 $69,335,177 $40,153,150 $67,469,255 $90,676,705 $88,933,852 $39,160,900


Year-Over-Year Change -76% -22% 3% -11% -20% -23% -49%


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