Alameda Home Inventory Grows 7-Percent

In just seven days, Alameda Home Inventory grew 7-percent and is closing in on 200 units for the first time since I started tracking the data in 2008. The total number of units is just 13 new properties for sale, but the trend is showing that sales on the Island are not matching the rate of sale.

The more concerning number is the growth of foreclosures. Alameda saw four more foreclosed homes come to the market: 73 Sand Harbor, 1005 Verdemar Dr, 1139 Pacific Ave and 2133 Clinton Ave. There was a net gain of three foreclosed units week-over-week.

The foreclosure pipeline looks to be very full and the trend appears to be rising. According to RealtyTrac, Alameda has 282 homes in the foreclosure process;  215 in the 94501 and 67 in the 94502. Of those the bulk, 144 units, are still in the pre-foreclosure process, 99 are at the auction stage and 39 are banked owned.

If the RealtyTrac numbers are accurate, then the banks are still sitting on inventory. If you add in the additional distressed properties then the Alameda Inventory is roughly 316 units, nearly 10-percent of all the Alameda's housing stock.

The positive is Alameda is in better shape than most of the country. The Island had just one in every 423 housing units received a foreclosure filing in July 2010. That is on the low end of the spectrum. Some parts of the country and the Bay Area are seeing nearly, twice as many filings, 1-244 is the higher ends. The Nation's number one foreclosure market Las Vegas, NV had one filing for every 71 households and the state of Nevada one filing for every 82 households.

The housing market looks like it is going to be very bumpy over the next several months and the distressed properties is good indicator to monitor as we head towards 2011.

Inventory

Date: September 13, 2010	9/13/10	9/6/10	Weekly Change
Total Inventory	198	185	13
94501	148	140	8
94502	50	45	5
Single Family	109	99	10
Condos	60	55	5
Multi-Family	27	29	(2)
Foreclosure	20	17	3
Short Sale	21	22	(1)
Price Reduced	79	72	7
% of Price Reduced	39.90%	38.92%	0.98%
High List	$1,835,000	$1,835,000
Low List	$149,888	$149,888

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Alameda Real Estate: Odds, Ends and Inventory

Just a quick post today. The Alameda home inventory is down from the prior two weeks, and if you look at the chart below you can see the steep decline since July. If this was a ski slope it would be a lots of fun, but this line just makes the market sluggish.



The market add three new foreclosures this past week and you can see that distressed properties make up almost 30 percent of the Island's inventory. Distressed properties have made up 25 percent of the market since November. I think that this trend is going to continue most of this year.




The inventory for week shows that single family residence are still below 60 units. Of the 56 units for sale 16 of those properties are either a short sale or foreclosure; this is 29 percent of the inventory. If you are looking on Bay Farm the inventory 25 units, so buyers do not have much selection.

I would expect a bit of a sales run as the Federal Tax Credit comes to a close in April (buyers need to be in contract by April 30, 2010) on lower end properties that would fit the income limits for buyers. Until the market gains new inventory prices will be low and sales will be slow.

Alameda Inventory: February 12, 2010

. . 2/15/2010 . Total 109 . 94501 84 . 94502 25 . SFR 56 . Condo 32 . Multi-Family 19 . Short Sale 18 . Foreclosure 14 . Price Reductions 32 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $199,900 .

Increase in Single Family Homes For Sale

This week the Alameda Real Estate Inventory showed a niced increase with an additional nine units for sale. The increase in Single Family Residences was the most positive part of the increase in inventory.

The SFR market was below 60 units for the past seven weeks, so any bump even a small one is encouraging. Since most of the Island's housing stock is SFRs then an increase in this category is good for the current market, which has been suffering from a lack of inventory. There are 11 news single family listing since last Monday.

New Listings

. List Date List Price Adress Beds Baths Sq Feet Type . 2/5/2010 $648,000 336 LINA AVENUE 4 3.5 3150 SFR . 2/5/2010 $549,000 2015 BUENA VISTA AVENUE 2 1 1318 SFR . 2/5/2010 $619,900 404 KITTY HAWK RD 3 2 1438 SFR . 2/5/2010 $430,000 3116 LA CRESTA 3 2.5 1628 TNHS . 2/4/2010 $450,000 2017 LINCOLN AVENUE 3 2.5 1443 SFR . 2/4/2010 $639,000 404 CAMDEN RD 3 2 1503 SFR . 2/4/2010 $698,000 227 INVERNESS CT 3 2.5 1891 SFR . 2/3/2010 $565,000 7 KINGSBURY COURT 2 3.5 1503 CONDO . 2/3/2010 $470,000 3037 LINDA VI 3 2.5 1628 TNHS . 2/2/2010 $354,900 1819 UNION ST 2 1 997 SFR . 2/1/2010 $250,000 1825 SHORELINE DR #112 1 1 621 CONDO . 2/1/2010 $517,000 1618 6TH ST 2 2 1422 SFR . 2/1/2010 $310,000 447 LINCOLN AVE 2 1 722 SFR . 2/1/2010 $1,300,000 2809 SEA VIEW PKWY 5 3 2744 SFR . 2/1/2010 $779,000 105 SHEFFIELD RD 4 2 1954 SFR

Overall, Inventory still remains low, but relative to the the current sales levels it may be an appropriate level of housing stock until more buyers come to the market. This is the proverbial chicken and egg; in this case buyer and seller. More people will sell when they have people to buy and buyers will buy when there is something that fits their needs to buy.

A shift needs to happen to shake the market loose, but until then I will just continue to monitor the numbers.

Alameda Inventory February 8, 2010

. . 2/8/2010 . Total 113 . 94501 89 . 94502 24 . SFR 61 . Condo 31 . Multi-Family 19 . Short Sale 18 . Foreclosure 11 . Price Reductions 29 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $188,000 .

Alameda Snapshot: Empty Again

It appears that the New Zealander has closed leaving the historic Croll's building empty again. Here is an Alameda Snapshot of the beautiful stain glass incorporated in the building.

January A Fizzle For Home Sales

After a strong close to Alameda home sales in the final four months of a lackluster 2009 in, 2010 started with a completed fizzle. The first month of this year so far has recorded just 16 sales. This is the lowest total I have seen in the three years of data that I have compiled.

For a reference, January 2007 had 37 sales and 2008 and 2009 recorded 21 sales in the opening month of the year. The year-over-year decline is 24 percent and the month-over-month change is a decrease of 59 percent.



Typically January and February are slow months for home sales, but the unusually slow sales have been compounded by a lack of (new or good) inventory for buyers to choose from and the difficulty for many to still secure financing.

Because the sales were low the Alameda median home sale price dropped to $477,800. This is $91,200 drop from December or a 16 percent decline. The positive is that it is higher than January 2009’s $457,000. The high median sales price in 2009 was $594,000 in June.

January 2010 Alameda Home Sales

. Sales Date Address Type List Price Sale Price % . 1/5/2010 1041 CAMINO DEL VALLE TNH $365,000 $378,000 104% . 1/6/2010 1428 UNION ST SFR $825,000 $801,000 97% . 1/6/2010 1533 MOZART ST SFR $350,000 $335,000 96% . 1/8/2010 1547 B SANTA CLARA AVE SFR $575,000 $530,000 92% . 1/8/2010 2815 OTIS DR SFR $459,000 $426,000 93% . 1/8/2010 2031 OTIS DR #F CONDO $279,900 $285,000 102% . 1/8/2010 16 CALLAN PL SFR $1,850,000 $1,795,000 97% . 1/12/2010 1367 HANSEN AVE SFR $679,000 $679,000 100% . 1/12/2010 1560 LINCOLN UNIT C SFR $230,900 $210,000 91% . 1/13/2010 653 CENTRE COURT TNH $479,000 $483,600 101% . 1/13/2010 1825 SHORELINE DRIVE #213 CONDO $239,000 $245,000 103% . 1/15/2010 2140 CLINTON AVE. MFR $995,000 $880,000 88% . 1/15/2010 1554 4TH ST SFR $499,000 $530,000 106% . 1/15/2010 801 PARK STREET SFR $509,900 $490,000 96% . 1/15/2010 430 COLA BALLENA #C CONDO $484,000 $472,000 98% . 1/26/2010 2031 OTIS DR #G CONDO $215,000 $210,000 98% . Median $477,800 . Average $546,850 .

Alameda Landmark Now A Short Sale

Sorry about the lack of posts last week, but have been under the weather and did not feel much like writing.

Here is today's home inventory for Alameda and the data shows a nice upswing in inventory this week. In total the Island is up 11 more units than last week, but there is a concerning underlying element in the numbers that is cause for concern.

Five of the 11 units for sale are distressed properties; our of the properties are short sales. If this trend holds it is a sign that people are continuing to struggle with their mortgages and can not hold on at the current rate.

Three of the four short sale listings add this week were townhome/condos. The only exception is The Webster House at 1238 Versailles Avenue. Built in 1854 this is a City landmark and now a victim of the housing downturn. According to the listing comment it is a: Historical gem currently used as a bed & breakfast & tea house (business being sold separately). Fully remodeled w/ commercial kitchen & charming touches throughout. Large grounds, set far back from the street w/ great curb appeal.

Distressed properties are 35 percent of Alameda's inventory. Inventory growth is a good thing given the City has less than three months of it, but at the cost of others losing their property this can have other social impact.

Alameda Inventory -- February 1, 2010

. . 2/1/2010 . Total 104 . 94501 82 . 94502 22 . SFR 54 . Condo 29 . Multi-Family 19 . Short Sale 19 . Foreclosure 10 . Price Reductions 28 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $188,000 .

December Existing-Home Sales Down but Prices Rise; 2009 Sales Up

Some very sobering news from the National Association of Realtors® today, after a rising surge in sales due to the November deadline for the tax credit in September through November, existing-home sales fell as expected in December. First-time buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit and created a nice surge in sales in the prior three months.

In Alameda, we saw real estate sales follow the same pattern as the National trend. The Island’s sales peaked in October with 75 sales. September through November accounted for 168 of Alameda’s 491 sales for last year; 34 percent.

NAR reports prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009. This was also true for Alameda. Alameda reported an 85 percent increase in year-over-year sales for the month and a $4,000 increase in the median home price. Alameda’s median home price for December was $569,000.

Nationally, NAR report existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008. That is a big number a 16.7 percent drop. As reported in other news organizations economists expected an 11.6% decrease in sales during December, which was a big shock to the markets.

For all of 2009 there were 5,156,000 existing-home sales, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008; it was the first annual sales gain since 2005. Alameda saw an increase in sales with an 11 percent increase.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008. Alameda’s median was a marginal increase, but is still significantly higher the national median.

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from a 6.5-month supply in November. Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008. Alameda’s inventory continues to decline; a year-over-year comparison of December show at the end of 2009 there was a 35 percent decline in the number of homes for sale. Today Inventory, shown below, shows that the decline continues.

Inventory Data -- January 25, 2010

. . 1/25/2010 . Total 93 . 94501 77 . 94502 16 . SFR 51 . Condo 20 . Multi-Family 20 . Short Sale 15 . Foreclosure 9 . Price Reductions 29 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $239,900 .

“Cramdowns”: Will they work?

I get a lot of good Real Estate information from First Tuesday. They are a Real Estate education firm, but they have an online newsletter that summarizes some of the big issues in real estate for the wee and in this week’s newsletter they wrote about “Cramdowns” and it was a very interesting take.

A cramdown is the involuntary imposition by a court of a reorganization plan over the objection of some classes of creditors. Basically the court tells the bank these are the new terms of the loan so a borrower can stay in a home.

First Tuesday’s take was basically the since the New York Times reported housing prices in the U.S. flatlined in October, 2009 despite low mortgage rates and a homebuyer’s tax credit, the housing market has a new wave of foreclosures on the horizon and the only way to cure this ill is to force banks to take court institute financial terms.

Section from the First Tuesday article:

A combination of high unemployment and the failure of the current administration’s foreclosure prevention measures will result in an estimated 2.4 million foreclosures this year.

Considering the fresh wave of foreclosures expected, what will happen to prices in the coming months when the Federal Reserve Bank (The Fed) begins to raise interest rates and the government tax credit extension has expired?

Prices are predicted to fall by another 10% nationwide. Another price drop would push more homeowners into underwater situations. The only timely and affective way to deal with an underwater home – negative equity and homeowner insolvency – is to reduce the principal balance on the home loan, or in other words, a cramdown.

It is an interesting take, and I agree that high unemployment, a new wave of foreclosures, and falling prices will continue to add pressure to the market. But forcing lenders with cramdowns will not improve the entire situation. Future buyers could then pay more for loans, because banks will make up the losses by charging more.

A national policy would be difficult, because in high demand areas like the Bay Area and Alameda a 10 percent decline would most likely impact those who purchased in the last five years, but not a majority of homeowners. The lack of inventory in California has become and issue and allowing homes to come on to the market could actually improve the housing market.

Buyers have an opportunity with low interest rates, low prices (compared to three years ago) and goverment assistance, but they lack inventory to select from in the current environment.

Big Change in FHA Loan Requirements

The The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has made some big changes to their loan policy. First off, just so everyone understands the FHA does not make loans, but rather offers insurance against default so lenders have a fallback position. The cost of the mortgage insurance is passed along to the homeowner and typically is included in the monthly payment.

Unlike conventional loans that adhere to strict underwriting guidelines, FHA-insured loans require very little cash investment to close a loan. There is more flexibility in calculating household income and payment ratios. In most cases, the insurance cost to the homeowner will drop off after five years or when the remaining balance on the loan is 78 percent of the value of the property -whichever is longer.

FHA loans are popular because borrowers are only require a down payments of 3.5 percent of the purchase price, that requirement did not change.

The new policies announced today are designed to bring more revenue into the agency, while at the same time keeping loans available. FHA's popularity has grown and the agency is seeing dramatic financial pressure with the increase of foreclosures (the need to payout on bad loans) and the increase in popularity of the FHA loan. The FHA has seen an increase of popularity in this product they now back nearly 30 percent of loans.

The changes:
Borrowers pay an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 2.25 percent of the total loan amount, up from the current level of 1.75 percent. A home buyer will still be able to wrap these fees into the total amount borrowed. FHA officials also plan to ask Congress to increase the maximum annual premium that FHA can charge.

Need a credit score of at least 580 to qualify. Borrowers with a score lower than 580 will need a down payment of at least 10 percent.

For California and our local Alameda housing market this will make it more difficult for first time buyers that have little for a down payment. If they have a poor credit score they may not be able to buy at all, and for many this is a good thing. People who could not afford houses over the past five years were getting loans they could not afford.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Alameda Inventory For January 18

Just a quick update on weekly inventory. As you can see after a slight uptick last week, inventory fell back to 95 units this week. The good news is all categories of inventory are shrinking, that includes distressed. If the market can get rid of the distressed properties this is good news for our local Alameda real estate market.

The tough part of the market is the single family residence. There are only 54 SFRs listed
for sale today. The Single family market is Alameda's biggest driver of home sales, so a lack of inventory makes the market a difficult one for those looking to buy, with limited choices.

Inventory is very volatile, but in my opinion it is the best way to get a quick pulse of the market. The pulse, right now, is telling me we have very little activity and sales continue to stagnate. The numbers are broken out below.



Alameda Inventory January 18, 2009

. . 1/18/2010 . Total 95 . 94501 79 . 94502 16 . SFR 54 . Condo 19 . Multi-Family 20 . Short Sale 14 . Foreclosure 10 . Price Reductions 30 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $220,000 .

A Peak Into 2010 Alameda Home Sale

Since I spent the last two days looking at Alameda Home sales for 2009, I thought it would be good to see how January is shaping up.

To date the Island has seven sales logged. Last year we had 21 total sales for the month of January, but the first was not record until the ninth day of the month. So Sales have started a little earlier this year, but the pace is behind last year.

The majority of the sales sold below asking price, a trend that is continuing from 2009. The range of ask price to sale price ranged from 92-104 percent. It appears that a few high end homes are still selling with 16 Callen Place receiving $1,795,000.

January is traditionally slow for home sales, but if we can get a strong start to the home selling season that usally jumps into high gear in the Spring, this could be a springboard for a more productive 2010.

. Sale Date Address Type Beds Baths Sq Feet List Price Sale Price % . 1/6/2010 1428 UNION ST SFR 3 2 2375 $825,000 $801,000 97% . 1/12/2010 1367 HANSEN AVE SFR 3 1 1620 $679,000 $679,000 100% . 1/8/2010 1547 B SANTA CLARA AVE SFR 2 2 1325 $575,000 $530,000 92% . 1/8/2010 2815 OTIS DR SFR 2 1 1152 $459,000 $426,000 93% . 1/5/2010 1041 CAMINO DEL VALLE TNHSE 3 2 1584 $365,000 $378,000 104% . 1/6/2010 1533 MOZART ST SFR 2 1 1095 $350,000 $335,000 96% . 1/8/2010 16 CALLAN PL SFR 4 4 4251 $1,850,000 $1,795,000 97%

Alameda Tranfer Tax Revenue Update – Final for 2009

With the end of the quarter and the end of the year, I want to give a final update to Alameda's Transfer Tax for 2009.

I wrote about the Transfer Tax back in March and in one of my first posts was about Measure P, so I just thought I should continue to update how much money the "Tax" is generating throughout the year. First the disclosure: all of the numbers reflect residential housing sales recorded on the MLS. Commercial building and private sales are not included so the numbers are higher than reported. The intent is to get a reflection of what is happening.

Sales were up this past year, but the total dollars spent on homes was down, (See yesterday’s post) and if the council had not changed the transfer tax they would have seen more than a $50,000 decline in the transfer tax.

From January 1 to December 31, 2009, there were 492 sales that represent over $278,995,615 million dollars in transactions. Under the newly enacted $12 per $1,000 the transfer tax generated $3,347,947 in revenue. If the Council had not made the change ($5.40 per $1,000) the revenue would have been $1,506,576; a difference of $1,841,371.



The final quarter of the year made a huge difference in the amount of money generated for the city coffers. Over a million dollars was generated by the tax in the final three months. October alone generated over $500,000.

Given all the factors putting pressure on the housing market foreclosure, a soft job market, tight lending and scared buyers/sellers the impact is has been harsh in the number of sales and the revenue generated.In the last blog post I said that in the short-term the tax may be one more factor for people not to buy, but given the stress on the City’s General Fund the tax may have been a necessary step. I think that this continues to be true.

I followed this topic for a year, instead of a quarterly update I will be changing to a semi-annual.

Wrap On 2009 Alameda Home Sales

So it is time to wrap up 2009 Alameda Homes sales with December’s numbers and the totals for the year. My disclaimer: The data is what is reported on the Multiple Listing Service and is not a complete picture of all sales, but it does give a good image of what (or did not) happened in terms of sales.

First the December 2009 sales numbers were good, with 39 transactions recorded. This is one more sales than November, and an 85 percent year-over-year increase. The median sale price for the last month of the year was $569,000 and the average was $610,741.

December recorded two million dollar sales. Twenty eight of the sales were single family residences, nine condo/townhome and two multi-family.

The last half of the year really picked up in terms of sales volume and made 2009 much better than 2008.

The total number of sales for 2009 was 492 units for a total dollar value of $278,995,615. Compared to 2008 when the Island had 463 sales for $288,519,712. So we had more sales, but less dollar volume.


The median sale price in 2009 was $555,000 and the average was $567,064. Alameda had 298 property sales under $600,000.

Single family residences accounted for 332 sales in 2009 with 14 properties selling for more than a million dollars. A home on Bay Street was the top sale at $1,917,828; the low sale was $135,000.

As the year moves forward it appears that Alameda market did make a turn towards recovery, but the only thing I can say is 2009 was better than 2008 and my hope is 2010 will be even better.

Weekly Inventory

. . 1/11/2010 . Total 102 . 94501 83 . 94502 19 . SFR 59 . Condo 21 . Multi-Family 20 . Short Sale 19 . Foreclosure 11 . Price Reductions 32 . High List $1,999,000 . Low List $215,000 .