Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Down But Not Out

This week the Case Shiller report was released and the data for San Francisco Bay Area showed the home housing prices have been hit hard. Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area fell a massive 32.4 percent for the month of January. The more than one-third making decline gave our metro the distinction of being the third worst area out of the 20 metro areas the reports covers.

Only Las Vegas (32.5%) and Phoenix (35%) had larger declines. These two markets have been hit hard by foreclosures and are much smaller metros. The Case Shiller report tracks single-family home prices from available sales data.

Since I focus on Alameda, I wanted to see if we had seen similar declines in homes purchase in 2004 and 2006 and sold in the last few months. Although there were only a handful of examples these sharp declines did exist in Alameda.

Here are just a few examples:

Property: 3221 Encinal

Purchased: November 1, 2006

Purchase Price: $679,000

Sold Date: February 19, 2009

Sold Price: $420,000

Decline: 38%


Property: 1809 St. Charles

Purchased: August 15, 2005

Purchase Price: $690,000

Sold Date: January 22, 2009

Sold Price: $457,000

Decline: 34%


Property: 26 Maitland

Purchased: February 7, 2006

Purchase Price: $592,000

Sold Date: February 25, 2009

Sold Price: $460,000

Decline: 22%

I thought it would be interesting to see how a few properties purchased in 2004 were holding their value. I used Zillow for the estimated value, but I am very cautious about using Zillow valuations because the accuracy can be off. This is a whole lot of what if game, because there may be hidden value that is not taken into account. I do think the tool gives a fair overall look into what the declines in Alameda have been in the past few years.

The first property was the highest price property sold for the year 2004.

Property: 1193 Sherman

Purchased: July 27, 2004

Purchase Price: $1,675,000

Zillow’s Estimate: $1,532,500

Decline: 9%


Then next one was a million dollar home.

Property: 1831 San Jose

Purchased: May 5, 2004

Purchase Price: $1,000,000

Zillow’s Estimate: $814,000

Decline: 19%


The final two were a home purchased in the $700,000 and $500,000 ranges.

Property: 1311 San Antonio

Purchased: June 4, 2004

Purchase Price: $780,000

Zillow’s Estimate: $689,500

Decline: 12%


Property: 2056 Pacific

Purchased: April 16, 2004

Purchase Price: $560,000

Zillow’s Estimate: $485,000

Decline: 13%


Link to the Report: Case Shiller Indices,

A little mood Music from the Animals:

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