The Island is Flat

On Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that home values have plummeted to an eight year low to a median home price of $350,000 down 47.8%. It is obvious to say that that is a huge decline, but here in Alameda it appears that the market has held up well over the last year.

I took a look at the Average Listing Price on Island in 2007 verses 2008, and it shows that prices that sellers are asking are slightly down, but overall fairly flat. The main Island saw a 5% decline in the asking price. The average of the actual sales price almost mirrored the listing price where buyers were paying between 97-99% of the list price.

The numbers show that Alameda has been holding up over most of the region. Alameda has taken its hit with 20% of the current listings in foreclosure or short-sale, but it does not compare to what is happening in Oakland (744 foreclosed homes, 35% of listings), Richmond (416 foreclosed homes, 46% of listings), and in far east Contra Costa County in Brentwood, Oakley, Antioch and Pittsburg (1,027 foreclosed homes, 47% of listings) that have staggering numbers of foreclosures. The distressed property, foreclosures and short sales, have pushed the median price down and this pushes the entire real estate market down.

The most distressing number is the number of listings sold from 2007 to 2008. It is very bad news, if you are a Realtor or the Alameda City Council looking forward to an increase in revenue the Property Transfer Tax will bring in for next years budget. As of December 15 the numbers of transactions are down 56%.

Alameda three largest brokerages, according to their websites, have 146 real estate sales people, add in an estimated 60 more agents at the other brokerages and that is a lot of people scrambling for deals. The dirty math is 884 sides year to date which means a little over four transactions per agent if every deal stayed with a local person. These are very tough numbers for those toiling in only Alameda Real Estate.

I will not do the math for the City, but I am sure that the impact is very similar.

Here is the breakdown of 2007 to 2008. Scroll further down for the weekly inventory numbers and remember the 94501 Real Estate Survey.Click Here to take survey

 

2007
Zip	No. of Listings	Ave. Listing Price	Ave. Sale Price	%
94501	725	$      660,557.95	$   651,533.09	99%
94502	273	$      701,463.25	$   690,676.66	98%
2008	As of 12/15
Zip	No. of Listings	Ave. Listing Price	Ave. Sale Price	%
94501	327	$      624,797.29	$   610,460.10	98%
94502	115	$      704,016.45	$   686,154.43	97%
Year-Over-Year Changes
Zip	No. of Listings	Ave. Listing Price	Ave. Sale Price
94501	-55%	-5%	-6%
94502	-58%	0%	-1%

 

Alameda Inventory Data

Data Pulled December 21, 2008 at 10:00 AM

Total Units                                 164

94501                                       129

94502                                       35

Single Family Residences          90

Condominiums                           43

Multi-Family                              31

Foreclosure                               11

Short Sale                                 22

Price Reductions                       59

Highest Price Listing                  $1,995,000

Lowest Listing                           $179,900